tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45621247288733997652024-03-14T04:50:07.223-07:00Professor Hinkle's Prodigious ApercuProf_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-66452981775992076752008-12-11T09:16:00.001-08:002008-12-11T09:17:15.875-08:00Follow up to "worst" predictions ever...Here's proof that predictions are fleeting at best...<br />http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1093470/Next-Christmas-iPod-kaput-How-Sir-Alan-Sugar-got-wrong-174million-times--webs-worst-predictions.htmlProf_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-33855366255540809802008-10-29T14:55:00.000-07:002008-10-29T14:56:43.306-07:00Did we really say that??Follow-up to "Successful Predictions win Prizes!?"<br />Now, read this:<br />http://www.pcworld.com/article/152683-7/future_tech.html#16Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-30937540967411554952007-09-08T15:13:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:43.698-08:00Drumroll please... Summary and Lessons Learned in CS855<b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Summary and Lessons Learned<o:p></o:p></span></i></b><div class="Section1"> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"><o:p> CS 855 Futuring and Innovation</o:p></span></i></b><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >So, this is the week 11 activity for explaining “How I spent my summer vacation” (<i style=""><span style="color:green;">remember writing that paper at the start of every school year in grade school??</span></i>)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >This however, was a different kind of “vacation”. We embarked on a trip to alternate environments, new horizons, and fascinating discovery as we are learning to become experts in computer science (including predicting the future).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKs2wu-PhaxCjIUosD8lkXKalSeOaRMftgm2JeGWk1_ouohskMYONfUCZ5stg7R0HSsNgCpEUutWQ1wXiL5ZGPMpGm4ylzqBLsVNROYkkWeLh8EA9k4Ymm1hYGOFjIAatfx_CkiPR6N2aJ/s1600-h/mmtour.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 253px; height: 208px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKs2wu-PhaxCjIUosD8lkXKalSeOaRMftgm2JeGWk1_ouohskMYONfUCZ5stg7R0HSsNgCpEUutWQ1wXiL5ZGPMpGm4ylzqBLsVNROYkkWeLh8EA9k4Ymm1hYGOFjIAatfx_CkiPR6N2aJ/s320/mmtour.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107960528019343682" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Where we started:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >We began with an exceptionally renowned lecturer, <a href="http://home.gwu.edu/%7Ehalal/">Dr. William Halal</a> in our July residency who gave us some basics about this topic of “futuring”. Dr. Halal helped us to begin to understand the forces operating within and around the technology revolution. This series of lectures covered the highlights of Dr. Halal’s think-tank “<a href="http://www.techcast.org/">TechCast</a>”, the folks at <a href="http://www.bt.com/">BT.com</a> (Ian Nelid and Ian Pearson), the Internet and world-wide-web, popular science and technology magazines, world experts, and newsletters such as the <a href="http://www.theharrowgroup.com/">Harrow Report</a> and <a href="http://www.cochrane.org.uk/">Peter Cochrane</a> who have crafted a fairly comprehensive listing of predictions in the areas of <o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> <span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" > </span> <div class="Section2"> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Artificial Intelligence and Artificial Life<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Biotechnology, Health, and Medicine<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Business and Education<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Demographics<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Energy<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Environment and Countryside<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Home and Office Infrastructure<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Life and Leisure in a Cyberspace World<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Machine Input/Output<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Materials and Electronic Devices<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Processing, Memory, and Storage<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Robotics<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Security, Military, and Law<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Shopping and Money<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Space<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Telecommunications<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Transport and Travel<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Wearable Technology<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Wild Cards<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> </div> <span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" > </span> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >These predictions/forecasts were laid out for us and expounded upon by Dr. Halal and we had some vigorous discussion regarding many of them with the few days we had to share with Dr. Halal. The interesting thing he reminded us about forecasts (besides making certain we don’t call them predictions—he insisted we leave “predictions” to fortune tellers not professional forecasters) is that many of the forecasts may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke">Arthur C. Clarke</a> said:<b style=""><i style=""> “…Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic…”</i></b> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Profiles-Future-Arthur-C-Clarke/dp/0575402776/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-1583614-0478867?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189267987&sr=8-1">(Clarke’s third law—Profiles of the Future by Arthur C Clarke--Original edition first published in 1962.)</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhw5B1RNDJqj2X4VAz8-EJ4NqiaKnPXgOd-J3cnjJFheJ-zNTsiGs2L5Y6vZhuzqVb_xHINxvSeU-Sv0cM-3FLmGyx8tGGe3_ijAkjQeC-LeRWZ45UHvGn7iFN_vwu8FZPLVr5a_XvoUF5/s1600-h/mmmagic2.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhw5B1RNDJqj2X4VAz8-EJ4NqiaKnPXgOd-J3cnjJFheJ-zNTsiGs2L5Y6vZhuzqVb_xHINxvSeU-Sv0cM-3FLmGyx8tGGe3_ijAkjQeC-LeRWZ45UHvGn7iFN_vwu8FZPLVr5a_XvoUF5/s320/mmmagic2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107961249573849442" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" >Some of the other important points that were brought up from Dr. Halal’s visit lead us to think of how our children will view and interact with their world—we will likely do many of the same basic things in life, but in terms of how we do them, we may as well be on different planets due to the future of technology. One very interesting quote from Dr. Halal’s lecture material stated <b style=""><i style=""><span style="color:maroon;">“The future comes to us all at 60 minutes per hour, but (forecasting the future) allows us to look a bit further up the road and see what could be happening…”</span></i></b> (Quote from either Ian Pearson or Ian Nelid—the source was not clear)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In the book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Fortune-Sellers-Business-Selling-Predictions/dp/0471358444/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-1583614-0478867?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189270054&sr=8-1">“The Fortune Sellers”</a>, William Sherdan states that there are basically sixteen different types of forecasts (economic, weather, stock market, population, technology, and so on) and only two could be counted on reliably (one-day ahead weather forecasts and the aging of the population) and only ONE of them has any scientific foundation—short-term weather forecasting. He states the remainder are “…typically based on conjecture, unproved theory, and the mere extrapolation of past trends…”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Dr. Halal continues these same thoughts by admonishing us<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" >“…some contend methods like this are subjective, whereas quantitative methods are more precise. The fallacy of this argument lies in seeing that quantitative methods also involve large amounts of uncertainty because they require underlying assumptions that are often doubtful…Experts may have their own bias, naturally, but it is usually distributed normally, washing out in the aggregate results…”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >To this, from Sherdan’s “The Fortune Sellers”, I.F. Clarke, a future historian of future thinking characterizes bias as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" >“Traditional beliefs, professional attitudes, customary roles, inherited symbols, sectional and national interests—these make it extraordinarily difficult for all but the most original of minds to break away from patterns of thought and go voyaging on the unknown seas of the future. In consequence, it is a rare forecast that makes any allowance for the essential waywardness of human affairs and does not insist on a strict continuity <u>between the self-evident present and the evidential future.</u>”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ImwQg0HbSUJJ7R2JchHQlDrwdwP_BAczTgcRQ57lkT2U9xIGfy2t70piDW7GcXsOJAbw4Et3whBp3dksnKBkY8Rg3pnqPh9ZlFEsY7F6wwc09rFF3XCxsnqOKL3CNcXyyA1OYt2llneN/s1600-h/fortune+sellers.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 204px; height: 204px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ImwQg0HbSUJJ7R2JchHQlDrwdwP_BAczTgcRQ57lkT2U9xIGfy2t70piDW7GcXsOJAbw4Et3whBp3dksnKBkY8Rg3pnqPh9ZlFEsY7F6wwc09rFF3XCxsnqOKL3CNcXyyA1OYt2llneN/s320/fortune+sellers.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107961906703845762" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >All of this is somewhat summed up by Sherdan discussing the cost of forecast error. He stated that the approximately $200 BILLION DOLLARS that consumers and businesses spend on predictions bear significant financial risk when “they use faulty forecasts to make important decisions. As individuals, we pay a large psychological cost when doom-and-gloom (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population">see Malthus</a>) predictions gives us needless anxiety. Then, there is the cost of just plain being duped.” So in other words, many predictions/forecasts have failed and some have been successful, but all have significant cost. The success of our ability to forecast the future then, will be somewhat determined by what we study from the past, so we began…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Where we went:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >We studied the past, present, and future of forecasting and futuring with emphasis and analysis on failed and successful predictions to determine what we can apply to our own futuring abilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >We embarked upon learning the “future” of the Internet and World-Wide-Web by exploring the newest “bleeding-edge” tools commonly known as Web2.0. We did all of our work in Blogs and in <a href="http://www.secondlife.com/">SecondLife</a> <span style="color:red;">(If you don’t know about SecondLife, <a href="http://www.secondlife.com/news/"><span style="color:red;">go here</span></a> to read what news sources are saying and find out more)</span><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjLlFim_GUZlbjiXUtpqKRA_wAb4j88nVpMVFq6Y7y6GHobuyeAx-EIsQI5d-QM-zV7blVM4SBnTlZIQPTdDjirEB39_I4URwpvZfcoIKrXuPgjhTnwU89QU14fj8uuiOvWLyJ9EzhHK2/s1600-h/secondlife.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpjLlFim_GUZlbjiXUtpqKRA_wAb4j88nVpMVFq6Y7y6GHobuyeAx-EIsQI5d-QM-zV7blVM4SBnTlZIQPTdDjirEB39_I4URwpvZfcoIKrXuPgjhTnwU89QU14fj8uuiOvWLyJ9EzhHK2/s320/secondlife.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107969311227464162" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >to immerse us in the daily activity of advanced technology. We explored many types of Web2.0 tools to add skills to our personal toolkits—some were familiar and some were quite new to me, but ALL were extremely exciting!</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVadSNDlThKA3dAwmVnetdPi-dOVmKcEAKe_gaYg6dcq3pRZjnhW15GkCoZi_-pg1BfFm2tjczTCa0627s_yL4rhdnPIxXUu8-ODCcwNGngiGQh73qoizouCwEWUhxbZEr71CQjXi-aWpu/s1600-h/web2.0Tools.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVadSNDlThKA3dAwmVnetdPi-dOVmKcEAKe_gaYg6dcq3pRZjnhW15GkCoZi_-pg1BfFm2tjczTCa0627s_yL4rhdnPIxXUu8-ODCcwNGngiGQh73qoizouCwEWUhxbZEr71CQjXi-aWpu/s320/web2.0Tools.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107968241780607426" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >I totally loved the idea of using blogs for this course because of the many benefits blogs offer, most notably: EASE of USE—casual communication style, feedback from many others as opposed to only your class, WIDE dissemination of subject matter/topics (its on the Internet!), Open audience, Interactive style, NO RULES, No previous knowledge required for using most blogging software.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The listing of my blogs for this course was:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/07/cs855-and-beginning-of-my-blogosphere.html">CS_855 and the beginning of my Blogosphere</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/07/meaning-of-lifeok-ok-how-about-meaning.html">The meaning of life...ok, ok how about the meaning...</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/07/futures-so-bright-i-gotta-wear-shades.html">The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!??</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/07/web-20-semantical-synaptic-web.html">Web 2.0 The Semantical Synaptic Web?</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-introduction.html">Week 4- Failed Project Introduction</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-history.html">Week 4- Failed Project History</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-history-continued.html">Week 4- Failed Project History Continued</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-alternate.html">Week 4- Failed Project Alternate?</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-reality.html">Week 4- Failed Project Reality</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/week-4-failed-project-analysis.html">Week 4- Failed Project Analysis</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/08/web-20-browsing-with-friends-and.html">Web 2.0 Browsing with friends (and friends’ friend...</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/future-of-personal-flight-or-flight-of.html">Future of personal flight or flight of fancy??</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/service-oriented-architecture-in-real.html">Service Oriented Architecture in the “real” servic...</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html">My latest predictions--fodder for the foolish?</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/google-docs-web20-test-drive.html">Google Docs--Web2.0 test drive.</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/most-logical-mr-spock.html">Most logical Mr. Spock!</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/successful-predictions-win-prizes.html">Successful Predictions win prizes?</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/math-rules-stars-too.html">Math Rules the Stars too!</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-6-slideshare-web20-experiment.html">Week 6 - SlideShare Web2.0 experiment</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/robots-are-coming-robots-are-coming.html">The Robots are Coming! The Robots are Coming!</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-8-think-tanks-part-1.html">Week 8 Think Tanks Part 1</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-8-think-tanks-part-2.html">Week 8 Think Tanks Part 2</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-8-web20-tools-flickr-my-bicr.html">Week 8 Web2.0 Tools--Flickr my Bicr</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/technorati-signup-beginning.html">Technorati Signup--The Beginning</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/technorati-not-paparazzi-ok.html">Technorati, not paparazzi-ok?</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;color:blue;" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-10-web20-delicious-but-can-you.html">Week 10 Web2.0 -- Del.Icio.Us … But can you taste ...</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 10pt;"><u><span style=";font-family:Arial;font-size:10;color:blue;" ><span style="font-size:85%;"><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/nearly-last-post-for-cs855-big-project.html">The nearly last post for CS855--The BIG project......</a></span><o:p></o:p></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >I was amazed by some of the tools my classmates and peers found, so while I was looking for clipart pix for the above collage, I stumbled on (but not by using <a href="http://www.stumbleupon.com/">stumbleopon.com</a>) this fantastic “directory” of 2.0 tools.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >If there’s a listing of Web2.0 tools available, it may be here--<br />Here’s a site that we ALL must get familiar with: <a href="http://www.go2web20.net/">GO2WEB20.NET</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Where we’re going:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiStjCB8cwX1JannQt9382Cb10q6xWehioHetD20PLUJ5K2Y1i7L4rgTGNFYBMOhVF1TA8FqP7kKvOuddDbkpU8vNs7zjxsRpYMBLlyw2GoAHxlnm0OX5dQJw8L90_SYaF9d44FYK9_EGel/s1600-h/space3.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiStjCB8cwX1JannQt9382Cb10q6xWehioHetD20PLUJ5K2Y1i7L4rgTGNFYBMOhVF1TA8FqP7kKvOuddDbkpU8vNs7zjxsRpYMBLlyw2GoAHxlnm0OX5dQJw8L90_SYaF9d44FYK9_EGel/s320/space3.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107967339837475234" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Why did we do this?<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The emphasis on learning new and innovative tools and skills will assist us in defining the future of technology and other areas that we may become involved in after graduation from <a href="http://www.instituteforadvancedstudies.com/">Colorado Technical University</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Our goals were to identify and discuss the models of innovation, make informed predictions on industry trends and future directions, identify organizational structures that support or hinder future change, identify the means through which innovation is diffused and disseminated within an organization and throughout society.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Some of my favorite quotes on futuring and innovation:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >“Just as energy is the basis of life itself, and ideas the source of innovation, so is innovation the vital spark of all human change, improvement and progress”</span><br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >~</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><a href="http://thinkexist.com/quotes/ted_levitt/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >Ted Levitt</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >“To stay ahead, you must have your next idea waiting in the wings.”</span><br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >~</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" >Rosabeth Moss Cantor<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >“Keeping a little ahead of conditions is one of the secrets of business”</span><br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >~</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" >Charles Schwab<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >“Innovation is not the product of logical thought, although the result is tied to logical structure.”</span><br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >~</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><a href="http://thinkexist.com/quotes/albert_einstein/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >Albert Einstein</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >“I believe in being an innovator.”</span><br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >~</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><a href="http://thinkexist.com/quotes/walt_disney/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >Walt Disney </span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >To close out, the Sherdan book “The Fortune Tellers” reminds us that one of the biggest challenges in assessing the validity of a prediction is to question whether our own judgment about the prediction is clouded by personal beliefs and predispositions. “Is our belief in a prediction a function of hearing what we want to hear?” For example, the chronic pessimist (ME) is much more likely to believe an economist who issues a negative forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Sherdan stated that our propensity to believe in predictions consistent with our own beliefs is often exploited by charlatans using what is called the Barnum effect, named in honor of the master showman and trickster who advised other tricksters to “…have a little something in it for everyone…” This tactic is central to the art of astrology where the believability of predictions or personality analysis is enhanced by including general observation in which customers can see themselves or relate to.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf5o_lWU8whp_iNT5YZnxpPbFdp3B5Uv-II5hBzUU8HkqjY9Lc6FOHxWkYw1Db5VR1EibvWPRcKwUAHuTof4G0Z6ZO-IGB3ZQD5dZt0BrMB-VI5wfL9Q2AQsdNQ5US8UVkhhcQzG2y3KVl/s1600-h/fortuneteller.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf5o_lWU8whp_iNT5YZnxpPbFdp3B5Uv-II5hBzUU8HkqjY9Lc6FOHxWkYw1Db5VR1EibvWPRcKwUAHuTof4G0Z6ZO-IGB3ZQD5dZt0BrMB-VI5wfL9Q2AQsdNQ5US8UVkhhcQzG2y3KVl/s320/fortuneteller.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107961580286331250" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The one major thing I think I learned is that paradoxically, our future lives are seemingly <b style=""><i style="">more influenceable than predictable.</i></b> Although one can never really know how his/her life will evolve, it is surely possible to influence the evolution of one’s life to achieve certain aims and goals. If there is something to be gained by heeding the message, “Que Sera ,Sera” (What shall be, shall be), it is that we should not take ourselves so seriously in the light of the fact that our futures will be filled with uncertainty and, in large part, shaped by chance events and luck (except for us who believe that God directs our paths and leads us if we are obedient in following his word—no luck involved with God).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In spite of that, it seems that we <b style="">can</b> choose to lead lives that somehow flexibly adapt to unforeseen changes, and ambitious and motivated individuals can influence their futures by striving to make things happen. It’s all about making decisions and choices to shape your own future.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >And the future, according to a famous movie line, is yet to be written…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGTIgdf1RiscC4gV5tQskqvdIZTYUH20_igmw7nZQImFSu6MapnTRVYZ0ghXtqzmABspwSIn7cxZvSjrUNkscHBOj8gnM1aZHczqtzYXEO-QbRmAn4sUc2NJUQSKzT7LyF6W3bpIYH97NB/s1600-h/final.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGTIgdf1RiscC4gV5tQskqvdIZTYUH20_igmw7nZQImFSu6MapnTRVYZ0ghXtqzmABspwSIn7cxZvSjrUNkscHBOj8gnM1aZHczqtzYXEO-QbRmAn4sUc2NJUQSKzT7LyF6W3bpIYH97NB/s320/final.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107967769334204850" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-82134284101208523572007-09-06T19:13:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:44.790-08:00The nearly last post for CS855--The BIG project...Final Project.<br /><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">The ever-expanding universe of the forecasted fate of my blog. (huh?)<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" lang="EN">Or at least how my focus has centered on one of my predictions based on my research…<o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"> </v:formulas> <v:path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"> <o:lock ext="edit" aspectratio="t"> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_s1028" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif" title="Institute for Molecular Manufacturing"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" >The week 9 and 10 activity/project for expanding my predictions includes many of the blogged topics we have covered in CS855 Socio-Technical Futuring (<i style="">now, Futuring and Innovation</i>). But specifically, I will be introducing Nanotechnology and how I believe the future of very many processes, systems, and manufactured items will be touched by this exciting new frontier. In the old TV series, Star Trek, William Shatner (Captain James T. Kirk) of the starship Enterprise would always narrate the story at the beginning for each episode and explain how “…Space…is the final frontier…”; if (outer) Space is the final frontier, then I propose that (inner) Space is the next closest thing—if we are to truly reach out and explore new worlds in our galaxy and beyond, we must first expand our knowledge of how our inner space works through this new science of Nanotechnology…</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqMmFYhgo8ljjHBNBqkAWx77Z0YeVVLUOIwLgRemXOCa_xhET393UzPlS_yrbQkZmNZ_ynOwbHkSMgSXoGIxvgGMZZqS5J-Q3pzpat9DWjxRjBsy6RpC5t-BF7GhTWUxaPt8A5tzfgIn61/s1600-h/Institute+for+Molecular+Manufacturing.gif"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqMmFYhgo8ljjHBNBqkAWx77Z0YeVVLUOIwLgRemXOCa_xhET393UzPlS_yrbQkZmNZ_ynOwbHkSMgSXoGIxvgGMZZqS5J-Q3pzpat9DWjxRjBsy6RpC5t-BF7GhTWUxaPt8A5tzfgIn61/s320/Institute+for+Molecular+Manufacturing.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107283800087283938" border="0" /></a><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Nanotechnology is an emerging and promising field of research, loosely defined as the study of functional structures with dimensions in the 1-1000 nanometer range. (Rice 2007) Certainly, many organic chemists have designed and fabricated such structures for decades via chemical synthesis. During the last decade, however, developments in the areas of surface microscopy, silicon fabrication, biochemistry, physical chemistry, and computational engineering have converged to provide remarkable capabilities for understanding, fabricating and manipulating structures at the atomic level.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1029" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:0;margin-top:0;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image002.gif" title="nanotech timeline"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjogfIk802sTQcmmbiHjUIr2-bS3cPZ4q3CiMr-2uWFzN4JJELz1ld0_cETz02O7PWSQHryoe6TbPY1dALeJGyXxp9vnGdCl0I7TmI_Cbw6NdbjYtjrMD43ULZVGD5RtFIWt_K4PjViZ23A/s1600-h/nanotech+timeline.gif"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjogfIk802sTQcmmbiHjUIr2-bS3cPZ4q3CiMr-2uWFzN4JJELz1ld0_cETz02O7PWSQHryoe6TbPY1dALeJGyXxp9vnGdCl0I7TmI_Cbw6NdbjYtjrMD43ULZVGD5RtFIWt_K4PjViZ23A/s320/nanotech+timeline.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107284212404144370" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Research in nanoscience is exploding, both because of the intellectual allure of constructing matter and molecules one atom at a time, and because the new technical capabilities permit creation of materials and devices with significant societal impact. The rapid evolution of this new science and the opportunities for its application promise that Nanotechnology will become one of the dominant technologies of the 21st century. “Nanotechnology represents a central direction for the future of chemistry that is increasingly interdisciplinary and ecumenical in application.”(Rice 2007)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1030" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:0;margin-top:7.25pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image004.jpg" title="Scale of Nanotechnology"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZelUVnA9HxnkrJMTcnVjeEomXvGMxzyymidHIZ6p-gEE8TFR_kq_PHnQ5Ea_zZPhyphenhyphenh4o2EbrSLJLxJuKA1n-EAL6pMDWruXolE4Fr5Xbxw9ryz4xAPoYANMNpOFHXqM6GNc6S3NzvllMh/s1600-h/Scale+of+Nanotechnology.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 493px; height: 308px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZelUVnA9HxnkrJMTcnVjeEomXvGMxzyymidHIZ6p-gEE8TFR_kq_PHnQ5Ea_zZPhyphenhyphenh4o2EbrSLJLxJuKA1n-EAL6pMDWruXolE4Fr5Xbxw9ryz4xAPoYANMNpOFHXqM6GNc6S3NzvllMh/s320/Scale+of+Nanotechnology.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107284461512247554" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >There seem to be three distinct “nanotechnologies” or fields of Nanotechnology:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >1. </span></b><span style=";font-family:";" >"Wet" Nanotechnology, which is the study of biological systems that exist primarily in a water environment. The functional nanometer-scale structures of interest here are genetic material, membranes, enzymes and other cellular components. The success of this Nanotechnology is amply demonstrated by the existence of living organisms whose form, function, and evolution are governed by the interactions of nanometer-scale structures.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >2. </span></b><span style=";font-family:";" >"Dry" Nanotechnology, which derives from surface science and physical chemistry, focuses on fabrication of structures in carbon (for example, fullerenes and nanotubes), silicon, and other inorganic materials. Unlike the "wet" technology, "dry" techniques admit use of metals and semiconductors. The active conduction electrons of these materials make them too reactive to operate in a "wet" environment, but these same electrons provide the physical properties that make "dry" nanostructures promising as electronic, magnetic, and optical devices. Another objective is to develop "dry" structures that possess some of the same attributes of the self-assembly that the wet ones exhibit.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >3<i style=""><span style="color:blue;">. Computational Nanotechnology, which permits the modeling and simulation of complex nanometer-scale structures. The predictive and analytical power of computation is critical to success in Nanotechnology: nature required several hundred million years to evolve a functional "wet" Nanotechnology; the insight provided by computation should allow us to reduce the development time of a working "dry" Nanotechnology to a few decades, and it will have a major impact on the "wet" side as well.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><i style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >This aspect of Nanotechnology is where my prediction for this project falls into—See </span></i></b><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Making Information Technology Available to All <i style=""><span style="color:blue;">below.<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Most importantly, these three nanotechnologies are highly interdependent. The major advances in each have often come from application of techniques or adaptation of information from one or both of the others.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Some of the key Nanotechnology Challenges being addressed are:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><a name="GlobalEnergy"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Providing Renewable Clean Energy<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Balancing humanity’s energy demands while protecting the environment is a major challenge. Nanotechnology will help to solve the dilemma of energy needs and limited planetary resources through more efficient generation, storage and distribution.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><a name="CleanWater"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Supplying Clean Water Globally<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >The demand for fresh water is increasing. Experts have predicted that considering the current rate of consumption and projected population growth, some two-thirds of the world will be affected by drought by the year 2050. Nanotechnology can help solve this problem through improved water purification and filtration.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><a name="HealthLongevity"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Improving Health and Longevity<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Humans are living longer lives, yet infectious diseases and cancer continue to kill millions annually. Again experts have predicted that because of an aging population there could be a 50% increase of new cancer cases by the year 2020. Nanotechnology will enhance the quality of life for human beings through medical diagnostics, drug delivery and customized therapy.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><a name="Environment"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Healing and Preserving the Environment<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >As a set of fundamental technologies that cuts across all industries, nanotech can benefit the environment in a wide variety of ways. Stronger, lighter-weight materials in transportation can reduce fuel use, nano-structured fibers reduce staining and therefore laundering, and low-cost nanosensors will make pollution monitoring affordable. In the longer term, manufacturing processes using productive nanosystems should be able to build our products with little if any waste.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Maximizing Productivity of Agriculture<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Pressure on the world's food sources is ever increasing while harvests have fallen short in recent years. It is anticipated (those experts again…) that our world population will swell to 8.9 billion by the year 2050 putting even greater demands on agriculture. Precision farming, targeted pest management and the creation of high yield crops are a few nanotech solutions.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><a name="UbiquitousIT"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Making Information Technology Available To All<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Experts agree that humanity will need to cooperate as we respond to disasters and critical threats to our survival. A "planetary nervous system" fostering rapid communication and cross-cultural relationships is needed. Nanotechnology applications in electronics will increase access through reduced cost and higher performance of memory, networks, processors and components.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><i style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >This is the very point of impact that I am predicting that my classmates will have a significant role in fulfilling. In my predictions/forecasts within my blogs, I predicted that Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Michelle Hammonds, or Alex Probst (who began the DCS#1 class but transferred to another University) will have significant input into a new solution to Nanotech, possibly a new Nano-Language for programming computers, devices, or other such Nanotechnology instruments.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <div color="-moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color windowtext" style="border-style: none none solid; padding: 0in 0in 1pt;"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="border: medium none ; padding: 0in; line-height: 200%;"><a name="OuterSpace"></a><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Next is the blog entry where I forecasted/predicted the above future:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </div> <h3>My l<a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >atest predictions--fodder for the foolish?</span></a> </h3> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Predictions about Predictions</span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">People are always asking consultants to make predictions.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Should we be wise and silent, or attempt to accommodate them?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">People especially crave predictions about their financial and emotional futures. Which stocks will grow? Will I be happy? Which companies will fold? What jobs will be best? Will I find love? What should they study to prepare for their future jobs? What products will sell?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Predictions are difficult.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">…Well, no, predictions are actually easy—many people are ready to throw in “their two cents” -- unless you want some semblance of accuracy.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">As Gerald M. Weinberg (consultant and author on consulting) has put it: “Since I'd feel responsible if I hurt somebody with a poor prediction, I seldom accept their invitation to predict.” I must agree with him and decline to predict as a general principle.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">In <a href="http://secretsofconsulting.blogspot.com/2006/06/predictions-about-predictions.html">Mr. Weinberg’s blog</a>, he recounts how book publishers <i><u>predicted his book’s failures</u></i> if they would but choose to print it on several occasions. In one instance the publisher took pains to expound on why they were predicting failure “…I first sent it to the company that had published all my previous books without hesitation. Here's what they said: "It just is not worthwhile pushing this project any further. It may be that the concept is good ... but the style and breadth of presentation is just not suitable. It could be that a major overhaul and rewrite will result in a marketable project. On the other hand, it may be wiser to forget the book concept entirely...”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">He continues “…The book was not overhauled, nor rewritten, but it was turned down by another publisher before it finally found a home. It's now been in print for more than 30 years, and has sold over 100,000 copies in English, and many more in other languages. For the company that eventually published it, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Computer-Programming-Silver-Anniversary/dp/0932633420/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-3677220-0547630?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188222373&sr=8-1">The Psychology of Computer Programming<span style="font-style: normal;"> </span></a></i>sold more copies and made more money than the next five books (published) in their line…”</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Weinberg adds, “…in retrospect, the two publishers who declined the project proved not to have much </span><i><span style=";font-family:";color:maroon;" lang="EN">(successful)</span></i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"> predictive power.” We couldn’t agree more!</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Patrick Henry once said, "I have but one lamp to guide my life. I only know the future from the past."</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">So, if the past can be used to make predictions, what predictions can we make using past predictions as a guide?</span></p> <ul type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">Publishers will be wrong?</span><o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">The world is flat?</span><o:p></o:p></li></ul> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;">·</span><span style="font-size:7;"> </span><b><span style=";font-family:";" >"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."<br /></span></b><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943</span></cite><span style=";font-family:";" > </span></p> <ul type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."<br /><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Popular Mechanics, 1949</span></cite> </span></li></ul> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;">·</span><span style="font-size:7;"> </span><span style=";font-family:";" >"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing’s is a fad that won't last out the year."<br /><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957</span></cite> </span></p> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;">·</span><span style="font-size:7;"> </span><span style=";font-family:";" >"But what...is it good for?"<br /><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip</span></cite> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;">·</span><span style="font-size:7;"> </span><b><span style=";font-family:";" >"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."<br /></span></b><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of DEC</span></cite><span style=";font-family:";" > </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><cite><span style="font-style: normal;font-family:Symbol;" >·</span></cite><cite><span style="font-style: normal;font-size:7;" > </span></cite><span style=";font-family:";" >"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary; we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'"<br /><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Steve Jobs, cofounder of Apple Computer</span></cite></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;">·</span><span style="font-size:7;"> </span><span style=";font-family:";" >"Indeed, it would not be an exaggeration to describe the history of the computer industry for the past decade as a massive effort to keep up with Apple."<br /><cite><span style=";font-family:";" >- Byte, December 1994</span></cite> </span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >…You’re welcome, Ted Vera—from Matt.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">One further thing to remember about forecasting and predictions as<a href="http://home.gwu.edu/%7Ehalal/"> Dr. William E. Halal </a>reminded us “Many of the items (predictions on future technology) may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist Arthur C. Clarke said: </span><b><span style=";font-family:";color:maroon;" lang="EN">‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’</span></b><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"> (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Profiles-Future-Arthur-C-Clarke/dp/0575402776/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-3677220-0547630?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188233796&sr=8-1">Profiles of the Future, 1961</a> – Clarke’s third law).” Some test huh?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">I’m not going “out there” as Dr. Halal and the 2005 BT Technology timeline did <a href="http://www.techcast.org/forecastTable.aspx">(see similar predictions here)</a>, however here are some that I’m willing to make (some even have dates to qualify my success/failure):</span></p> <ol start="1" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">I feel that Computational grids (including CPU Scavenging grids) which focuses primarily on computationally-intensive operations, or <span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color:black;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_grid" title="Data grid">Data grids</a></span></span> -- the controlled sharing and management of large amounts of distributed data will come into personal computing usage in the mainstream (not just reserved for large companies anymore).</span><o:p></o:p></li></ol> <ol start="2" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:maroon;"><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Computers will not replace humans with complex problem-solving skills since humans use logic mixed with illogic (mainly due to their human perspective and experiences) to create success. </span><i><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">Note: this one is contrary to the 205 BT technology timeline that predicts “Expert systems surpass average human learning and logic abilities – 2011-2015”</span></i><o:p></o:p></li></ol> <ol start="3" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">Computers will control basic functions such as self-monitoring of simple systems (communication, comfort, entertainment, facilities) and some self-maintenance in homes widespread globally in civilized countries by 2025.</span><o:p></o:p></li></ol> <ol start="4" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">People will have more personal computers (in their homes, cars, and clothing) than televisions by 2020. <i>Remember the movie “Back to the Future” when the 50’s family flatly stated that “nobody has two TVs”?</i></span><o:p></o:p></li></ol> <ol start="5" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:blue;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">A “new” major computer programming language (or perhaps a NanoLanguage) will emerge prior to 2030 that will replace many of the older languages. </span></b><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">I expect Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Alex Probst, or Michelle Hammonds to be involved in this project somehow…</span><o:p></o:p></b></li></ol> <ol start="6" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color:black;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN">New ways will be invented to harness the power of the human brain using some type of technology or devices (e.g. Nanotechnology). <i>In the 2005 BT technology timeline, they refer to this as “Brain add-on’s” and I agree with them</i>, although I believe we will see them prior to (at least one decade sooner than) the forecasted 2030’s date.</span><o:p></o:p></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in;"><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Check back often to see what others are saying about these!</span></p> <div style="border-style: none none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color windowtext; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 0in 0in 1pt;"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="border: medium none ; padding: 0in; line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >NOTE: End of blog entry (Hinkle, 2007)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </div> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Enabling Space Development<o:p></o:p></span></b></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Heavy demands on resources and raw materials are creating challenges on earth, whereas these items are plentiful in space. Current obstacles to developing space are cost, reliability, safety, and performance. Nanotechnology will solve these through improved fuels, smart materials, uniforms and environments.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><i style=""><u><span style=";font-family:";" >In fact, there may not be a single industry that will not be changed by nanotechnological applications.</span></u></i></b><span style=";font-family:";" > Be it a tennis racquets or long-lasting nanoparticle tennis balls. A foot warmers, athlete skin care or a ski wax.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Nanotechnology today, is progressing towards the delivery system for anti-cancer drugs at the same time research is going on to develop nanofibre which will help create blood vessels, help in treatment of vascular diseases and in heart surgeries.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >The purpose of medical devices and nanorobots traveling through the human body is essentially a positive one of searching out and destroying clusters of cancer cells before they spread. Scientists are also working towards the preparation of injectable nanoparticles that will help as medication for treating alcoholism and other related diseases. Because of this it is also called the “future technology” by some observers.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1031" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:0;margin-top:0;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image006.jpg" title="desalinization of water with nanotech"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG8UuxQE-Kh3OyVrln39LcNaLTFwvAo4SIq_KxkmLszIfdWURIJtryYEqYarSDZTtMMFLNdq03YSQu33yrAnHQBQhKx0NeWwQPQ68cN3-B6oQuoZotx6QPEhuabwSUx5OVoiihUqGzuS35/s1600-h/desalinization+of+water+with+nanotech.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG8UuxQE-Kh3OyVrln39LcNaLTFwvAo4SIq_KxkmLszIfdWURIJtryYEqYarSDZTtMMFLNdq03YSQu33yrAnHQBQhKx0NeWwQPQ68cN3-B6oQuoZotx6QPEhuabwSUx5OVoiihUqGzuS35/s320/desalinization+of+water+with+nanotech.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107285015563028754" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Furthermore, a lot of money is being invested in this field (as is usually true with any new, promising technology). In 2004, <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">USA</st1:country-region></st1:place> invested more than $400 million into the research area of Nanotechnology, facilities, and business development programs and lots more in the area of publicity is being poured in. (<span style="">Nano Science and Technology Consortium, 2007</span>) On a global scale, these figures multiply exponentially. Even private firms are contributing enormous amounts of money—over two billon dollars a year, besides the extensive funding from governments in the field of Nanotechnology.<span style="color:blue;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Nanotechnology—the manufacture<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >In terms of techniques for manufacturing “nanoscale” materials, there are two different approaches, bottom up and top down. Figures 1 and 2 give examples of each approach. (SustainPack 2007)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Top-down refers to making nanoscale structures by machining and etching techniques, whereas bottom-up, or "molecular Nanotechnology," applies to building organic and inorganic structures atom-by-atom, or molecule-by-molecule.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1026" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:0;margin-top:1.05pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image007.gif" title="Fig1- Top-Down"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhilGLPiOpRlp2aLQ4QKMdJgP0f1vsBfeFhUyqD_jmXOnrSHlT7SOQ8XgYPMlxV1qNojKyrqY54Er7n9wTAuGfd6SGsEf_31ppJfEyFqPMQY3mtpFsUvP53ypHpaHqIcyIrn0nfDRma4uUm/s1600-h/Fig1-+Top-Down.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhilGLPiOpRlp2aLQ4QKMdJgP0f1vsBfeFhUyqD_jmXOnrSHlT7SOQ8XgYPMlxV1qNojKyrqY54Er7n9wTAuGfd6SGsEf_31ppJfEyFqPMQY3mtpFsUvP53ypHpaHqIcyIrn0nfDRma4uUm/s320/Fig1-+Top-Down.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107285419289954594" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" > Figure 1 Top-Down Manufacturing<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1027" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:0;margin-top:15.15pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image008.png" title="fig2 Bottom-Up"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8KD_qy6SS42iJMg-x_Qk2OtFaibVrXxX8gFLVGgKh3FjSyD0QSLtahAqpV865BLcu5FnFhakr15HtwwiFr2N36sSxGN3MJLXh6RmIarSq6j9q2w8xuONDckGtjC9idftgeM2f7Mpt-F_/s1600-h/fig2+Bottom-Up.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8KD_qy6SS42iJMg-x_Qk2OtFaibVrXxX8gFLVGgKh3FjSyD0QSLtahAqpV865BLcu5FnFhakr15HtwwiFr2N36sSxGN3MJLXh6RmIarSq6j9q2w8xuONDckGtjC9idftgeM2f7Mpt-F_/s320/fig2+Bottom-Up.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5107285569613809970" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" > Figure 2 Bottom-Up Manufacturing<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt; line-height: 200%;"><i></i></p><blockquote><i>"Molecular manufacturing will eventually transform our relationship to molecules and matter as thoroughly as the computer changed our relationship to bits and information. It will enable precise, inexpensive control of the structure of matter."</i><br /><span style=";font-family:";" >— Neil Jacobstein, Chairman, IMM (Institute for Molecular Manufacturing 2007)</span></blockquote><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Nanotechnology—the risks<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >As with any developing technology, there will undoubtedly be actual and perceived risks and since we’re dealing with ourselves (humans) -- <b style="">associated fear</b>, there is a seemingly urgent requirement to constructively and proactively debate these now, rather than wait until polarized views have developed any further—which are likely to damage any further advances in the technology. It seems likely that although there is much political (and scientific) support for Nanotechnology, a repeat performance of the handling of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) use in agriculture—should be avoided at any cost. Although, according to Dr. Halal’s TechCast group, there is a growing acceptance or trend towards acceptance of GMOs (<a href="http://www.techcast.org/fup/articles/060705165246TC%20GMF.pdf">see this article for more</a> Tull-TechCast.org 2007)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Therefore, thorough risk assessments of the advancements in Nanotechnology should almost be as important as the technology itself. For example, it is envisioned that it may be important to assess whole lifecycles via Life Cycle Analysis or development tools, in order to evaluate the net benefits for environmental improvements. Such evaluations will be required to ensure there is not an increase in burden further down the supply chain, in disposal etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >The technical challenges should by no means be underestimated. They comprise the following:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Scaling up from lab to industrial capabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Understanding the properties involved with nano materials.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Converting the science into application.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Herein is where my prediction takes place at this level. The application of the science of Nanotechnology will be driven by pioneers already in the field as well as newly formed experts and think tank type organizations who are willing to use agile methodologies and yet-to-be-discovered processes and languages for programming the tools, hardware and software that will enable these bold new endeavors to flourish. This is where my prediction comes into play—<b style=""><i style=""><span style="color:blue;">Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Michelle Hammonds, or Alex Probst (who began the DCS#1 class but transferred to another University) will have significant input (if not a patented new technology) into a new solution to Nanotech, possibly a new Nano-Language for programming computers, devices, or other such Nanotechnology instruments by the year 2030.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >(No pressure though gang!)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Regulating, standardizing, classifying and risk managing round out the list of the technical challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Indeed, if we are to reach out to the Stars as we imagined Captain Kirk and his brave crew actually did, then we must first master our inner-space and the very building blocks of matter, through the ever-shrinking world of Nanotechnology (at least, that’s what I’m forecasting for the future!)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <span style="line-height: 200%;font-family:";font-size:12;" > </span> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >REFERENCES<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Hinkle, Matthew. Blog entry <i style="">“My latest predictions—fodder for the foolish?”</i>. Retrieved from <a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Institute for Molecular Manufacturing Website, homepage. Retrieved from <a href="http://www.imm.org/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://www.imm.org/</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Nano Science and Technology Consortium Website, <i style="">“</i></span><i style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >Application of Nanotechnology”</span></i><span style=";font-family:";" >. Retrieved from <a href="http://www.nstc.in/NTBenefits.aspx"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://www.nstc.in/NTBenefits.aspx</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Rice. 2007. The Richard E. Smalley Institute for NanoScale Science and Technology at <st1:place st="on"><st1:placename st="on">Rice</st1:placename> <st1:placetype st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place>, <i style="">“What is Nanotechnology?”</i>. Retrieved from <a href="http://cnst.rice.edu/nano.cfm"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://cnst.rice.edu/nano.cfm</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >SustainPack Website, <i style="">“What is Nanotechnology?”</i>. Retrieved from <a href="http://www.sustainpack.com/nanotechnology.html"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://www.sustainpack.com/Nanotechnology.html</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in; line-height: 200%;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >Tull, Whitney. 2006. TechCast Report on Genetically Manufactured Organisms <i style="">“Why Do People Fear or Accept Genetically Modified Foods?”</i> retrieved from <a href="http://www.techcast.org/fup/articles/060705165246TC%20GMF.pdf"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >http://www.techcast.org/fup/articles/060705165246TC%20GMF.pdf</span></a> September 6, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-81008289861054406222007-09-05T18:05:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:45.191-08:00Week 10 Web2.0 -- Del.Icio.Us … But can you taste it?<b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Del.Icio.Us … But can you taste it?<o:p></o:p></span></i></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The week 10 web2.0 activity for exploring Del.icio.us begins at <a href="http://del.icio.us/">http://del.icio.us/</a> and ends (who knows where you will go?... Oh, the places you’ll go!)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD6NLuSVa5sxmttuwJWV36BGOn0ePdNHrQx570wUG41X_5abrO1z7nl_QZeOeA2ojCaRHLndB3L1VyndhtHr_PjoCvFhkDgcx60P6cA-YdL-L18X8MDZl4WavT63ZgHQmbHfltgohfIJo/s1600-h/180px-Oh,_the_Places_You%27ll_Go.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmD6NLuSVa5sxmttuwJWV36BGOn0ePdNHrQx570wUG41X_5abrO1z7nl_QZeOeA2ojCaRHLndB3L1VyndhtHr_PjoCvFhkDgcx60P6cA-YdL-L18X8MDZl4WavT63ZgHQmbHfltgohfIJo/s320/180px-Oh,_the_Places_You%27ll_Go.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106891351745579186" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Categorically, this is another Web2.0 tool for social bookmarking (and yes, another new account for me!). Technically, it was designed to allow users to store and share bookmarks on the web, instead of inside the user’s browser which offers several advantages like <o:p></o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="1" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >You can get your bookmarks from anywhere-home, work, library, outhouse (for the very wired), etc.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >You could share your bookmarks publicly so your friends and everyone can view them for reference, collaboration, or in my case, amusement. You could also mark yours as private (which kind of defeats the whole intent, but if you’re just using it as a web-only resource, then this would be preferable to public)<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >You can locate other people on del.icio.us who have similar tastes and add theirs to yours—as the site reminds people, “…which may help you find things that are useful for you, too.”<o:p></o:p></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >del.icio.us has a "hotlist" on its home page and "popular" and "recent" pages, which help to surface interesting content and make the website an effective conveyor of popular internet memes and trends.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Many novel features have contributed to making del.icio.us a very popular service. These include the website's simple interface, human-readable URL scheme, a novel domain name, a simple REST API, and RSS feeds for web syndication.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqi9mX-SbVmLDn73yi6zxmzSb22eyfgkwjfWDbc7ZhUboK4ymK41xhqEIx3G3t7QhpolNQnPeS64bFkForcc2CtjnjNylEs7Qsld4UPIrhYK7jYqHcuTy32Oo_MIs9O9N_bb29wpcDmV5/s1600-h/delicious.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFqi9mX-SbVmLDn73yi6zxmzSb22eyfgkwjfWDbc7ZhUboK4ymK41xhqEIx3G3t7QhpolNQnPeS64bFkForcc2CtjnjNylEs7Qsld4UPIrhYK7jYqHcuTy32Oo_MIs9O9N_bb29wpcDmV5/s320/delicious.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106891587968780482" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Use of del.icio.us is free. The source code of the site is not available, but a user's own data is freely downloadable through the API in an XML or JSON format, and can also be exported to a standard Netscape bookmarks format.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The very coolest feature I found in del.icio.us was the place to find the most popular tagged sites/bookmarks—the <a href="http://del.icio.us/tag/">Tag Cloud</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEn52nMZw50c-s8hhJm-xtrF7KtKSmEojaV00FFuhGFPrF2WxNLQwhG8VPT5QOBmNPBY5UOrVUABkCupBJgBEZeBEK7o9XhgwBjaZcJB9CB10gSYvZeG_Th-nZTc4fcHYnvlFNP3mAcnYL/s1600-h/tagcloud.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEn52nMZw50c-s8hhJm-xtrF7KtKSmEojaV00FFuhGFPrF2WxNLQwhG8VPT5QOBmNPBY5UOrVUABkCupBJgBEZeBEK7o9XhgwBjaZcJB9CB10gSYvZeG_Th-nZTc4fcHYnvlFNP3mAcnYL/s320/tagcloud.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106891849961785554" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >del.icio.us was acquired by Yahoo! on December 9, 2005.Various guesses suggest it was sold for somewhere between US$15 million and US$30 million.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The del.icio.us domain name is a notable example of a domain hack, an unconventional combination of letters to form a word or phrase. del.icio.us, though not the first domain of this nature, is the best-known and most frequently-accessed domain hack, and the Yahoo! acquisition is the highest-profile acquisition of a domain in this category. However, delicious.com and delicio.us also redirect to the del.icio.us website.</span></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Have Fun! but don't lick the monitor...<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-91342068265280680082007-09-05T17:24:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:45.453-08:00Technorati, not paparazzi-ok?<b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Technorati, not paparazzi-ok?<o:p></o:p></span></i></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"><o:p> Technorati, Part 2...</o:p></span></i></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The week 9 web2.0 activity for exploring <a href="http://www.technorati.com/">Technorati</a> begins at <a href="http://technorati.com/">http://technorati.com/</a> . The website is another Web2.0 tool that specifically deals with social networking and how individuals interconnect and collaborate globally across the internet.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p><br />Once again, I've signed up for yet another account. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p><br />Their Headline banner proclaims: <b style=""><span style="color:blue;">“Zillions of Photos, Videos, Blogs, and more—some of them </span><i style=""><span style="color:red;">have</span></i><span style="color:blue;"> to be good”<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >So, obviously it is a tool to share and find photos, videos, and blogs and more.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The center navigation tool of the page offers categories of “most popular” items in Videos, Music, DVDs, Movies, Games, News, and Blogs. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The links are shown based upon their own links in others’ blogs; so in other words, the people who are linking to them are driving the search results to the top based on the sheer number of links.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >There are also links to “Top Tags” (the most popular tagged items) and extra tools for the Technorati such as Browser Buttons, Desktop Widgets, Blog Widgets, Blog Searching and Info, Pinging, and Misc. Widgets; all of which make Technorati a VERY POWEFULL Web2.0 tool indeed—if you truly want to stay ultra-connected, this is the tool you CAN’T do without!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.technorati.com"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimxQx9Sf66ehm-k5XUdNJsTg8lOajEmu9yyYo8mlNufiy2B0MxNLyLXRbwq7KaTLtelow2sgCTDpRz8ePltwvSxrUTrw9sZa1EoVLNR2ifcWEvMUChAd8jYR6aF2qJXoUMeUAKLnpvGdYg/s320/technorati+widgets.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106881408896288914" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >There are further linked websites listed in category tabs such as: Favorites, Watchlist, Popular, and WTF (stands for “Where’s the Fire” in this instance)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" >“WTFs are short blurbs that explain the buzz around people, things, or events—why the hot topics are so hot—and you can vote the best ones to the top. Have some genius to spare? Jump in and <a href="http://www.technorati.com/wtf?new">write a WTF</a>!”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Nuts-N-Bolts…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Part of the process of signing up and creating your profile includes adding links to your existing blog(s) to the Technorati empire. They have some simple rules for doing this: (They call it “claiming your blog”)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Here are their simple instructions:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Activate the claim using Post Claim <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Blogger Posting Instructions<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In another web browser window, <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >log in to your Blogger account</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >On the Blogger Dashboard, click on your blog name<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Click "Create" to create a new post<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Copy the code below, then paste it into the main text box of your new post with any Title<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >After I followed the instructions, I published the blog entry with their special code that shows up in the blog like this: </span><a href="http://technorati.com/claim/8t8thvfwwz">Technorati Profile</a> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >After I published that code, I returned to their website to click on the next button (which was interestingly titled [“Release the spiders”] Apparently a nod to the bots/agents/spiders that it sends out to find its own code to return the data to Technorati for logging) to finish the “claiming” process. A very , very Web2.0 feature!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Next began the process of editing your blog information for the Technorati audience. They have available a profile or description of the blog, the language you write in, a place to create tags for your blog, and code you can insert into your blogs for allowing others to save your blog as a Technorati favorite!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.technorati.com"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGBAcp20W_DFOOfaqG5kT4oHYnZs4HER4xjbZfTx-tZaRuhY49ZLrDdahHm6uiYpNpCcqaUp2Ho2VokOVZSjehtiC5iuDGrdk2arNh2KqCrCQ9NnAevOdIxNHcODgqxBd7K8pi6mpNzpjb/s320/technorati+home.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106881718133934242" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >There are simply TOO MANY tools on this website to investigate here in this short blog—you really need to check it out at length to properly set up your account for maximum usability…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-87663023909851527812007-09-05T14:26:00.000-07:002007-09-05T14:31:18.955-07:00Technorati Signup--The Beginning<a href="http://technorati.com/claim/8t8thvfwwz" rel="me">Technorati Profile</a><br /><br />Hello,<br />this is where I am signing up for an account at Technorati, so I am following their directions for "claiming my blog" within the Technorati membership.<br /><br />Here are their simple instructions:<br /><br /><fieldset class="submitted"><legend>Activate the claim using Post Claim</legend> <h3>Blogger Posting Instructions</h3> <ol><li>In another web browser window, <a href="http://www.blogger.com/" onclick="newWindow(this);" onkeypress="newWindow(this);">log in to your Blogger account</a></li><li>On the Blogger Dashboard, click on your blog name</li><li>Click "Create" to create a new post</li><li>Copy the code below, then paste it into the main text box of your new post with any Title</li></ol></fieldset><br /><br /><br />Here is the scoop:<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/claim/8t8thvfwwz" rel="me">Technorati Profile</a><br /><br />Hang on to your bloomers--we're off!Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-53430978366721594882007-09-04T18:26:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:45.995-08:00Week 8 Web2.0 Tools--Flickr my Bicr<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Flickr my bicr (—remember the flick my bic (lighter) commercials?) ok, ok, I'm showing my age again...<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The week 8 web2.0 activity for exploring Flickr begins at <a href="http://www.flickr.com/">www.flickr.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >After creating a new account, I went back to the start page because something had caught my eye.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The page gives some simple statistics regarding how popular this social network website/service is getting to be:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><span style=""> </span><b>3,293</b> photos uploaded in <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >the last minute</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><span style=""> </span><b>160,129</b> photos tagged with <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tags/morning/clusters/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >morning</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" ><span style=""> </span><b>2.8 million</b> photos <a href="http://www.flickr.com/map/"><span style="text-decoration: none;color:#000000;" >geotagged</span></a> this month<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Seemingly astonishing numbers to me, of course I am very much an introvert and somewhat anti-social so it boggles my mind how these networking sites are proliferating.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >First, the item that really caught my eye was the astounding number of geotagged photos – 2.8 MILLION this month!! For those who keep track of webpage hits, this is an amazing number to me. Second, 3,293 photos uploaded in the LAST MINUTE! Give me a break—that’s incredible!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The geotagging feature really swept me from the get-go so I had to check it out.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIRSjYdpjrX-aoHyHJKtO0qelf2hqtFe0WRyv2YZy0k7z2lS7_16PxsrwnIlVNxuH6j3FrSQQ7Li-rmOnXtiEGPBFhIaZ5AirZJZVPn-06ZOaJeuk8oq31iBnM293LSWj5daz39XV0XRU/s1600-h/flickr_geotagged.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIRSjYdpjrX-aoHyHJKtO0qelf2hqtFe0WRyv2YZy0k7z2lS7_16PxsrwnIlVNxuH6j3FrSQQ7Li-rmOnXtiEGPBFhIaZ5AirZJZVPn-06ZOaJeuk8oq31iBnM293LSWj5daz39XV0XRU/s320/flickr_geotagged.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106525746949474402" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >I clicked on the link to find the above picture representation of the locations of the geotagged photos. Just looking at the map, you can see that they have a database of over 2.5 MILLION geotagged pictures that people have actually taken the time to tag with locations so others can find them.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Then, I saw the search window which allows users to search for locations and it shows you a listing of pictures associated with that location. So I input <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Tulsa</st1:place></st1:city> and came up with the following picture map:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWX3EqNWrZE2amGi78WKBQkLma3qKyRdrIzVDR-Ps2obNiPs4HT8XgPLLawzCo3cW4-JG_M2YrP8aQ8tLVuRRg19WjhI6wr9lrQw5ZZ3COIK1F4DuV3df3iVTT4nLT3BrQV1av9qYRiKJp/s1600-h/flickr_search.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 417px; height: 287px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWX3EqNWrZE2amGi78WKBQkLma3qKyRdrIzVDR-Ps2obNiPs4HT8XgPLLawzCo3cW4-JG_M2YrP8aQ8tLVuRRg19WjhI6wr9lrQw5ZZ3COIK1F4DuV3df3iVTT4nLT3BrQV1av9qYRiKJp/s320/flickr_search.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106526004647512178" border="0" /></a><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;font-family:";" ></span><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In the past, I have always used Google/Images for my picture searches, but now if I’m looking for a place, I’m probably starting here…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >By taking the Flickr “tour” you can find out why they say you should use them:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h2 style="margin: 5pt 0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><span style="font-size:85%;">“Flickr is almost certainly the best online photo management and sharing application in the world. Let us show you why!”</span><o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p style="margin: 5pt 0.5in;"><span style=";font-family:";" >“Flickr is a way to get your photos to the people who matter to you. And since <b>basic accounts are free</b>, there's no reason not to explore further...”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >With Flickr, You CAN<o:p></o:p></span></h4><h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Upload<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Upload from your desktop, send by email, or use your camera phone.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Organize<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Use collections, sets, and tags to organize your photos.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Share<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Use groups and privacy controls to share your photos.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Maps<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Share <i>where</i> your photos were taken, and see photos taken near you.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Make Stuff<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Cards, photo books, framed prints, Target pick up, DVDs, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h4><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Keep in Touch<o:p></o:p></span></h4> <p><span style=";font-family:";color:blue;" >Get updates from family and friends.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style=";font-family:";" >I’m only going to briefly show you the flexible, user-friendly ways to <u>upload</u>—the rest of the site you can go explore on your own!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <h1><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><span style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Upload</span><o:p></o:p></span></h1> <p><span style=";font-family:";" >There are 5 simple ways to upload your photos to Flickr<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >via the Flickr Uploadr (available for both PC and Mac)<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >via iPhoto, Aperture, or Windows XP plugins<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >via our upload web page<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >via email<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >via various free third-party desktop programs<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi91-YI777Lre-JJf_coeQSIFlWGCYDpTFrMM7C82Y5jXnLG3dAIrVGhW7FxtJauyg5qDx_SZ1ZAXqcy0PvnMol0CeFmi0YVhX7-9cLQhxPGF1ayzaIxqP4DitPbClo_IE3bDmryAsnl_yE/s1600-h/upload_1.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi91-YI777Lre-JJf_coeQSIFlWGCYDpTFrMM7C82Y5jXnLG3dAIrVGhW7FxtJauyg5qDx_SZ1ZAXqcy0PvnMol0CeFmi0YVhX7-9cLQhxPGF1ayzaIxqP4DitPbClo_IE3bDmryAsnl_yE/s320/upload_1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106526528633522306" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span style=";font-family:";" >And if you're not near a computer? Snap a photo on your mobile phone, email it to Flickr, and have it appear on the site in seconds.</span></p><p>SWEET...<br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-26544593443230388852007-09-04T15:54:00.001-07:002008-12-08T14:38:46.178-08:00Week 8 Think Tanks Part 2<b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Don’t tank with your think when you discuss Think Tanks…<o:p></o:p></span></i></b> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The week 8 activity (part 2) for exploring Think Tanks begins at our friend and guest lecturer from the last residency—<a href="http://www.techcast.org/showCommentary.aspx?id=12">Dr. William Halal </a>and his own think tank, <a href="http://www.techcast.org/">TechCast</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p><br />The underlying premise of the TechCast think tank is the common belief that “People everywhere sense the world is passing through a technological revolution, but they lack convenient, reliable information.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >A Virtual Think Tank<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The folks at TechCast have ‘solved’ this problem by pooling knowledge of experts working online and automatically distributing authoritative forecasts to corporate managers, government officials, scientists, and the general public—anywhere in the world, on any prominent technology, in real time.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p><span style=";font-family:";" >The TechCast business pitch is that “All organizations need technology forecasts for their strategic planning because the technology revolution threatens the creative destruction of markets, alters the way people work, and restructures the world itself. Most managers try to develop their own forecasts or assemble them from limited outside sources, but the time and cost are considerable and the results are mediocre.” TechCast claims to offer convenient, authoritative forecasts at far lower cost and time savings. Our clients tell us "There is nothing else like it."<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The TechCast system was developed by Dr. Halal and his colleagues at <a href="http://www.gwu.edu/index.cfm">George Washington University</a> and <a href="http://www.gmu.edu/">George Mason University</a>. (sounds like a bunch of George-isms to me…)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >They have had their results of forecasts and predictions published in scientific journals, widely reported in the media (or is that wildly?), and used by paying clients around the world. Previously, the reports were distributed as the GW Forecast in print version via snail mail, but they have been online exclusively since 1998 and have reached over 1,000,000 hits per year in recent years.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdUVr17J-VeJ9OqyprfaVn4Iq0Cp6LyToa4uTHMda4VoRe0DUkEbfXiu07mFhG5_4N2UHA-4n-HNCdRoB0H85ToveQanUXx2Aqbgb7tjXoYWGBwx75vCHDR_ziANqOz629x3o0RVsGE1ZK/s1600-h/thinktank.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdUVr17J-VeJ9OqyprfaVn4Iq0Cp6LyToa4uTHMda4VoRe0DUkEbfXiu07mFhG5_4N2UHA-4n-HNCdRoB0H85ToveQanUXx2Aqbgb7tjXoYWGBwx75vCHDR_ziANqOz629x3o0RVsGE1ZK/s320/thinktank.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106486430818846802" border="0" /></a><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The group scans literature and media, interview authorities, and draw on other sources to identify emerging trends and other background data on each technology. The data is then summarized in a “Breakthrough Analysis” and used to guide estimates of technology officers (CTOs), scientists, and engineers, scholars, and other ‘experts’. Their results are automatically aggregated to forecast the most likely year each breakthrough will occur, the potential economic demand, and confidence levels. They claim to have a success rate of +/- 3 years on their forecasts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-56123605572933200332007-09-04T15:29:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:46.516-08:00Week 8 Think Tanks Part 1<span style=";font-family:";" >My opinion of what a think tank should be is very vague, the only real input that I can remember is when the news or TV would proclaim that some grand decision or new idea has come out of a think tank. So my impressions have always been that it was generally a bunch of old guys (experts and scientists mainly) that get together in some confined space (a tank) and hammer out ideas or solve problems. I was first under the impression that they were called together at short notice to solve some crisis like the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the Apollo 13 Crisis. Later on I gleaned bits and pieces of information that led me to believe that this was not necessarily true of think tanks. My original impressions of the tanks were strictly “black box” “top secret” secluded and highly secretive. I think I used to believe they were mainly covert operations.<o:p></o:p></span> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >To get a better grasp of the concept, I turned to the usual first stop for new info (for me) – </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page">Wikipedia</a><span style=";font-family:";" >. According to the source, a think tank is an “organization, institute, corporation, or group that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, science, or technology issues, industrial or business policies, or military advice.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >It appears that many think tanks are non-profit organizations (some with tax-exempt status in some countries), special interest groups, or perhaps funded by some government. Some have very specific and limited purposes, while others tackle all problems within their specialty. Many people admit the benefits of the use of great minds together are exceptional, however there are critics that claim they are "little more than public relations fronts...generating self-serving scholarship that serves the advocacy goals of their industry sponsors.", and some even question their bias towards the sponsoring or funding agency.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzf9Qr-MwnKFt8n8jlme2VQZEfsGmJfhq4am8Z_CTaoSF3K1Dd3rN2a4JPJLIUta05u3ygDd2VYLiyILIkU1wDnCfCwusc_h8Jp8Y2x3OPNs0CqJnlE8bhbDQ_49GcxgPDenqNZ6yyC7ij/s1600-h/RandCorp.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzf9Qr-MwnKFt8n8jlme2VQZEfsGmJfhq4am8Z_CTaoSF3K1Dd3rN2a4JPJLIUta05u3ygDd2VYLiyILIkU1wDnCfCwusc_h8Jp8Y2x3OPNs0CqJnlE8bhbDQ_49GcxgPDenqNZ6yyC7ij/s320/RandCorp.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106480774346917938" border="0" /></a><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Although the term “Think Tank” is a relatively new term (only in vogue since the 1950s) there have been many fine examples from the early nineteenth century such as the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), founded in 1831 at the initiative of the Duke of Wellington. Another is the Fabian Society of Britain, founded in 1884 to promote gradual social change. The Brookings Institution, founded in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> in 1916 is another candidate for the first think tank. The term think tank itself, however, was originally used in reference to organizations that offered military advice, most notably the RAND Corporation, formed originally in 1946 as an offshoot of Douglas Aircraft and which became an independent corporation in 1948.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid0s1rj5e63kxJ3dsD1_EMtnMbGAl7f3bQJFV7JlUg9KVp82KAT-W4kNRMJKe_0Ksr8p5lrJXrroSSNW6PyyYJs_ryvO41Kb3nfAkIEJrPaBeBcc_yehYLxxU4fMHhONGAzsI2G2MmELo7/s1600-h/Fabian+Society.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid0s1rj5e63kxJ3dsD1_EMtnMbGAl7f3bQJFV7JlUg9KVp82KAT-W4kNRMJKe_0Ksr8p5lrJXrroSSNW6PyyYJs_ryvO41Kb3nfAkIEJrPaBeBcc_yehYLxxU4fMHhONGAzsI2G2MmELo7/s320/Fabian+Society.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106480108626987042" border="0" /></a><br /><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Critics such as Ralph Nader have suggested that because of the private nature of the funding of think tanks their results are biased to a varying degree. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Some argue members will be inclined to promote or publish only those results that ensure the continued flow of funds from private donors</span>. <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">This risk of distortion similarly threatens the reputation and integrity of organizations such as universities, once considered to stand wholly within the public sector.</span> </span>Some critics go further to assert think tanks are little more than propaganda tools for promoting the ideological arguments of whatever group established them. They charge that most think tanks, which are usually headquartered in state or national seats of government, exist merely for large-scale lobbying to form opinion in favor of special private interests.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2xWtexkAf_2T-waTRjOuM4Och0nwsCj_OFnZNdKDIMAagJjhYuMK4s7iaNx1mCzq9Qn-CPpEziMfA-ytfgbHE53mtn8OLhzt1vQ7-EAu44Sr5ufomyFufxJRaiYtIZf1wUJO6f-vlqXgp/s1600-h/UNTHINK.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2xWtexkAf_2T-waTRjOuM4Och0nwsCj_OFnZNdKDIMAagJjhYuMK4s7iaNx1mCzq9Qn-CPpEziMfA-ytfgbHE53mtn8OLhzt1vQ7-EAu44Sr5ufomyFufxJRaiYtIZf1wUJO6f-vlqXgp/s320/UNTHINK.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106481001980184642" border="0" /></a><br /><span style=";font-family:";" > <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Think tanks in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> play an important role in forming both foreign and domestic policy. Typically, an issue such as national missile defense will be debated within and among think tanks and the results of these debates will influence government policy makers. Think tanks in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> generally receive funding from private donors, and members of private organizations. Think tanks may feel more open to propose and debate controversial ideas than people within government.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-17870146377656146012007-09-04T13:44:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:47.284-08:00The Robots are Coming! The Robots are Coming!<b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">The Robots are Coming! (Aibo’s, Furby’s, and Pleo’s oh my!) </span></i></b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:maroon;" lang="EN">Apologies to L. Frank Baum’s Lions, Tigers and Bears…<o:p></o:p></span></i> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><a href="http://www.forbes.com/">Forbes magazine</a> has been doing a series for a few years that examines the hottest trends in technology and innovation where they annually pick a group of tech innovators to watch (colloquially known as their “E-Gang”).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >In the current series, they have presented masters of robotic invention and innovation:</span></b><span style=";font-family:";" > “<b style=""><i style="">entrepreneurs and researchers who fuse advances in biomechanics, software, sensor technology, materials science and computing to create new generations of robotic assistants.”<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The “robots” of today are more on the move than ever before—walking, climbing, rolling, even leaping and flying. The premise is still virtually the same as it has been since 1400BC when the Babylonians developed the “Clepsydra”, (a clock that measured time using the flow of water). Some consider it to be one of the first “robotic” devices in history, although it seems that throughout time the notion of automation devices has evolved into robotics as we know it. The underlying premise then, is to help mankind. Some of this help comes in the form of protection, some comes from labor-saving, some from doing jobs that are too dangerous for humans, and even some is to amuse and entertain us. The Forbes article states that “…some even do floors…”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;font-family:";" >See the slideshare below for the Great Robotic Moments in History</span><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Since as early as 322BC man has recorded thoughts of the use of a helper or robot when Aristotle wrote about the great utility of robots:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><i style=""><span style=";font-family:";" >"If every tool, when ordered, or even of its own accord, could do the work that befits it … then there would be no need either of apprentices for the master workers or of slaves for the lords."<o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Within our generations, since 1921 when playwright Karel Capek popularized the term “Robota” (robota means “forced labor” in Capek’s native Czech) which evolved directly into “Robot”, we have imagined and fantasized about what robots could do for us.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju5cRYyizDZd5099ycEOXW1RfNIccyDf0hvazgqwcbzEJpi1kZubwtoLNk-p2IUHHh_wwj0KpwuquYm2PAPz7IFJWspM1jITft9YCmwiBkyfo_HPm0s_pz1rCHzC_a8UpZTnQraWoAbftr/s1600-h/RUR.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju5cRYyizDZd5099ycEOXW1RfNIccyDf0hvazgqwcbzEJpi1kZubwtoLNk-p2IUHHh_wwj0KpwuquYm2PAPz7IFJWspM1jITft9YCmwiBkyfo_HPm0s_pz1rCHzC_a8UpZTnQraWoAbftr/s320/RUR.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106452973023610802" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >So far, reality has fallen short of our imagination—Honda’s most world-reknown robot Asimo, who was introduced in 2000, has now been relegated to car shows, doing temp work as a receptionist at Honda, and shows at Disneyland.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeMODBoGRZhJDF-o-lwxZN8_xWoYMk8j83XD3lesuuF35Cdovb-jW8pcRggEz2iALtdQADRXX0AeWdz5ptS9GDs9bRPutjl8apNxAVbx6ObxOR-twKCSmTeccuFBgv_4-lrtRpZsRTPeI-/s1600-h/AsimoHonda.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeMODBoGRZhJDF-o-lwxZN8_xWoYMk8j83XD3lesuuF35Cdovb-jW8pcRggEz2iALtdQADRXX0AeWdz5ptS9GDs9bRPutjl8apNxAVbx6ObxOR-twKCSmTeccuFBgv_4-lrtRpZsRTPeI-/s320/AsimoHonda.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106453320915961794" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The bulk of the remainder of the worlds’ robots are relegated to permanent spots on factory floors where they perform mundane existences as laborers: welding, stamping, and cutting.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxnYRBNHyjfunBjS4zUWqQrsFBz7Tw83cXS4m_JsFuhe19-y9ugj5lIO7_73aICiU5zm1A01IZVZmhuzFfVfZbjbqGndFiUVcMYUBmGedpjIgq7L3Qc5fIvNz-reS0NodGrSquuK3How_K/s1600-h/Unimate.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxnYRBNHyjfunBjS4zUWqQrsFBz7Tw83cXS4m_JsFuhe19-y9ugj5lIO7_73aICiU5zm1A01IZVZmhuzFfVfZbjbqGndFiUVcMYUBmGedpjIgq7L3Qc5fIvNz-reS0NodGrSquuK3How_K/s320/Unimate.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106453514189490130" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The future though looks extremely bright. Learning has been the key for both the robots and their designers. Carnegie Mellon’s Robotics Institute has been an incubator for much of the current work on robots in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>. MIT scientist Rodney Brooks pushed the envelope of the field in 1990 when he showed how robots could make faster decisions by responding to sensory data rather than relying on complex sets of programmed instructions and rules.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The people working on these robotic projects are as diverse as the reasons for wanting robots. Some have been pioneers devoting their whole lives to developing robots such as Colin Angle and Helen Greiner who founded <a href="http://www.irobot.com/index.cfm">iRobot</a> with help from the aforementioned Rodney Brooks. In the medical world, Russell Taylor has contributed to innovations in surgical robots for decades. <span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp8YauYxJ1twHMGwFnuWuIE0dbW9ax4f5sD6XA58LIxID8dBTB7JosO1kOR6BfIGed43RxYq5-t6H0u_qIVd1dTCeJQJcMo9ei8oZ-Y3-a_Y9k6H8wPI4jvkdxd5bNhOzGkMhF4IMOJrKk/s1600-h/DaVinci+Robot.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp8YauYxJ1twHMGwFnuWuIE0dbW9ax4f5sD6XA58LIxID8dBTB7JosO1kOR6BfIGed43RxYq5-t6H0u_qIVd1dTCeJQJcMo9ei8oZ-Y3-a_Y9k6H8wPI4jvkdxd5bNhOzGkMhF4IMOJrKk/s320/DaVinci+Robot.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106453754707658722" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Others are relative newcomers such as Sebastian Thrun from Stanford who last year won a US DoD race of autonomous vehicles through the desert, and Mark Cutkoski (also of Stanford) who collaborated with an insightful biologist, Robert Full of Cal-Berkely to create a research device for studying nature called the “StickBot” who can crawl.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Still others are bringing robotics to the masses like Soren Lund at Lego with the <a href="http://mindstorms.lego.com/">Lego NXT</a> robot which was once considered a kind of “esoteric” engineering. Yoskiyuki Sankai at the <st1:placetype st="on">University</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename st="on">Tsukuba</st1:placename> in <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">Japan</st1:country-region></st1:place> is continuing the proud Japanese tradition of innovative and surprising humanoid robots. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieskyS4HBinUrKpIqxJT9AUo-ufNU_ECco2yOzPe0xnAk7JgqMgjYXuRFbzc7CkYTqm2OwPrT7PULa1EnjRGcELhnW4AVphG3dVY_PU42sltgOIR51mos3QxQ788_zKw_CbExwUShimVNN/s1600-h/Rise+of+the+Cyborg.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieskyS4HBinUrKpIqxJT9AUo-ufNU_ECco2yOzPe0xnAk7JgqMgjYXuRFbzc7CkYTqm2OwPrT7PULa1EnjRGcELhnW4AVphG3dVY_PU42sltgOIR51mos3QxQ788_zKw_CbExwUShimVNN/s320/Rise+of+the+Cyborg.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106454016700663794" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >And the group called <a href="http://www.ugobe.com/">UGobe </a>headed by Caleb Chung that reminds us that creativity and playfulness has long been a hallmark of robot-human interaction.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8vLrxPAd3cXoii0cyiMcJkIbsfA87t5MPAaDl7XGsUSr6kv747D9h_QHGK4vS6nSFAG7WBhqJb3ruFdFgWCFwvyBm0B0Q-MPyIatldM2imVL5FQN-lbcWGaFlX0k1Gj8Sewk2s5C2fwF6/s1600-h/UGoBe.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8vLrxPAd3cXoii0cyiMcJkIbsfA87t5MPAaDl7XGsUSr6kv747D9h_QHGK4vS6nSFAG7WBhqJb3ruFdFgWCFwvyBm0B0Q-MPyIatldM2imVL5FQN-lbcWGaFlX0k1Gj8Sewk2s5C2fwF6/s320/UGoBe.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106454240038963202" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The market for robots is “small” according to Forbes at a paltry $18 billion (including the software and peripherals) but growing rapidly—growth predictions by the <a href="http://www.ifr.org/">International Federation of Robots (IFR)</a>, estimate we will see some 7 million service robots in service by <b style="">2008</b>. <span style="color:red;">(Prediction?!)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQPNC5Ux_RPBoNZg3RsoeXAlnuO08ssH-CF2g2GHqYwA_ZpRp_yn5aX9GTsvdfhIWCNlb1yKgBfi6GnfsAdBbX5V4_wIEqJexUgPU5uyFczkhbQSAyS0RCJeJfx6YIJU6nzh7ehO67RB0/s1600-h/robotnumbers.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQPNC5Ux_RPBoNZg3RsoeXAlnuO08ssH-CF2g2GHqYwA_ZpRp_yn5aX9GTsvdfhIWCNlb1yKgBfi6GnfsAdBbX5V4_wIEqJexUgPU5uyFczkhbQSAyS0RCJeJfx6YIJU6nzh7ehO67RB0/s320/robotnumbers.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106454424722556946" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The most interesting story here about the robots coming is that they (<b style=""><i style="">their technology and innovation</i></b>) are calling on the ingenuity of people from wildly diverse backgrounds (biologists, teachers, entertainers, scientists) who are shaping the ways we interact and create them.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: yellow none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;font-family:";" ><a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/week-6-slideshare-web20-experiment.html">For more, see the 7 Amazing Robots that will change your life slideshare on my blog here</a></span><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The general manager of Microsoft’s robotics group (you know Bill Gates would have his nose directly in the middle of this competition [as does Steve Jobs I’m sure]) Tandy Trower (ok, I had to comment on his name too—“Tandy” in charge of robotics? Remember the Tandy TRS-80??) anyway, Mr. Trower proclaims that “…robotics today, remind him of the early days of the PC—chock-full of ideas, opportunities and too many different operating systems!”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The robots are coming—expect them EVERYWHERE…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://s3.amazonaws.com/slideshare/ssplayer.swf?id=103139&doc=great-moments-in-robot-history4559" width="425" height="348"><param name="movie" value="http://s3.amazonaws.com/slideshare/ssplayer.swf?id=103139&doc=great-moments-in-robot-history4559"></object><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-20061109719929874672007-09-04T13:26:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:47.402-08:00Week 6 - SlideShare Web2.0 experiment<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="" lang="EN">SlideShare<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p>The week 6 web2.0 activity for exploring SlideShare begins at <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/">www.SlideShare.net</a> and I have now created an account and logged-in.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p>It appears that SlideShare is a social networking website that allows users to share their presentations (colloquially known as slide shows, hence the name slide-share) on any subject. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p><br />The tool allows users to upload presentations using various software such as MS PowerPoint, OpenOffice, Keynote (Mac), or Adobe. The presentations are created on the user’s software, and then uploaded to the SlideShare website for sharing.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p><br />Users can further tag their presentations with keywords making them easier to find by others or even “Ping” others (a short public message sent to a user’s “SlideSpace”) to allow them to know you are sharing a new presentation.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">The “SlideSpace” is similar to a user’s homepage with contacts and email information for Pinging others with. The user can also elect to send private messages using their ‘message user’ feature on the SlideSpace which sends a single email to the specific user.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkCEwCULoIciZdqXqLnufIk7SBcAryz-N8xaN9mFH7xNLUKfI_y6BA0jODSJjngGo7lSW40RUvGzbFN0vpSsLY1Uf8GqI4MLoiYCLmyPSgMbWQvcKuyy_VXTSKT3l0rSlcTjA5Y8oZ7O8C/s1600-h/zings.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkCEwCULoIciZdqXqLnufIk7SBcAryz-N8xaN9mFH7xNLUKfI_y6BA0jODSJjngGo7lSW40RUvGzbFN0vpSsLY1Uf8GqI4MLoiYCLmyPSgMbWQvcKuyy_VXTSKT3l0rSlcTjA5Y8oZ7O8C/s320/zings.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106448437538146210" border="0" /></a><span style=""><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p>Users can also embed their presentations into blogs or websites, browse others’ presentations, and comment on them as well—even on individual slides! One aspect that helps user connect is the tool indexes presentations by transcripts and allows search engines to find these indexes. Another useful social tool is the “Zing” which allows users or guests to “vote” or rate your presentations to show its popularity!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">And it’s FREE! They have plans for future paid accounts with more features, but state that will not affect the free accounts (seems like we’ve heard this before, but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how popular this becomes…)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">The process for uploading/adding a slideshow or presentation seems to be pretty straightforward, although the instructions were a bit hard to find. As a “newbie” I expected some help right on the front page that told me what this tool was and how to use it, but NO, I had to go looking for that. Anyway, I don’t want to be a whiner, so here are the simple two-step instructions for uploading:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Step 1: The first step is the actual uploading of the PowerPoint/OpenOffice/Keynote/PDF file to our servers. During this upload process, the blue progress bar will keep you informed that the uploading process is going on.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Step 2: The second step is converting the uploaded file to SlideShare's format for sharing it online. Once the file is uploaded successfully, it is placed in the queue for conversion. The SlideShare people would like you to note that “…if there are a lot of slideshows in the queue, then this might take a while. You can move away from the page and come back to check later. Look in the "My SlideSpace" page for the converted file. If there was an error in the conversion stage, these files will not show up in the front of your "My SlideSpace". You will need to go to the "My SlideSpace/Edit All" to find the files that were not successfully converted.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><i style=""><span style="">Personal note: This uploading process does take a few MINUTES, be patient.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">Here’s a link to the SlideShare blog on new features:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><a href="http://blog.slideshare.net/2007/01/24/rolling-out-new-features-in-slideshare/">http://blog.SlideShare.net/2007/01/24/rolling-out-new-features-in-SlideShare/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">To embed the SlideShare presentation into your blog or website, the process seems to be equally simple<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">From the SlideShare.net website:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="">First view the slideshow on SlideShare.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="">On the right of the slideshow player you, you'll see a text box called Embed into your blog, with funny looking code in it.<o:p></o:p></span></li><br /><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="">It should look something like this--object type"="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="blah blah blah" width="425" height="348"--param name="movie" value="blah blah blah">:/object">!!><br /></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="">If you take that code and paste it into a blog posting or web site, then you would get a little embedded slideshow there.<o:p></o:p></span></li> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">And now, without further adieu, here is my first SlideShare:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="">These slides are taken from (courtesy of) the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/">Forbes magazine</a> article <a href="javascript:popit('http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/17/cz_tc_0817egangbots.html?boxes=custom&thisSpeed=20000',800,800)">“Seven Amazing Robots that will Change your Life”</a> They are ONLY for educational purposes to test the SlideShare Web2.0 tool’s ease of use and effectiveness.</span></p><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://s3.amazonaws.com/slideshare/ssplayer.swf?id=103140&doc=r-o-b-o-t-i-c-s3998" width="425" height="348"><param name="movie" value="http://s3.amazonaws.com/slideshare/ssplayer.swf?id=103140&doc=r-o-b-o-t-i-c-s3998"></object></span><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=""><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""><o:p> </o:p></span></p> </ul>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-8084618048755785912007-09-03T17:53:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:48.686-08:00Math Rules the Stars too!<span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Week 5 successful prediction.<o:p></o:p></span> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style=";font-family:";color:black;" lang="EN">Math Rules the Stars too!<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Successful Predictions Part 2: A real success story.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The discovery of the planet <st1:place st="on">Neptune </st1:place>was the first planet discovered purely by mathematical prediction rather than standard observation and telescopes.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHEiYBn42reIPIIiNFSLieKEW-rUnZ7fZhcG0Nrm8X_TCvfsUj57j9OQ_NQxPBEGjPZlzEdw7b4Uc3uEhRZ2kvoKY624e5beLWTNpQIZUUgaPaBxCJUPfGvkz4ZE3XdDOtwrAALQIhqDCp/s1600-h/math+predicts+neptune.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHEiYBn42reIPIIiNFSLieKEW-rUnZ7fZhcG0Nrm8X_TCvfsUj57j9OQ_NQxPBEGjPZlzEdw7b4Uc3uEhRZ2kvoKY624e5beLWTNpQIZUUgaPaBxCJUPfGvkz4ZE3XdDOtwrAALQIhqDCp/s320/math+predicts+neptune.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106150585851135826" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Discovered on September 23, 1846 <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> was the first planet discovered by mathematical prediction rather than regular observation. Perturbations in the orbit of Uranus led astronomers to deduce <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place>'s existence.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUAa19fkPRBJkN0h9MT9WdpByfv8B4Am8WMFOvpyxCiFx2EKmPtp5akdGKPTrJ4Tw1j7hGxAJD8yR1JDZERviuJYF7fxkrNKzwWy6I-qDDC12oEbpHvTwNSUYC4D09NjBnhiIRlp0SZ0ft/s1600-h/neptune.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUAa19fkPRBJkN0h9MT9WdpByfv8B4Am8WMFOvpyxCiFx2EKmPtp5akdGKPTrJ4Tw1j7hGxAJD8yR1JDZERviuJYF7fxkrNKzwWy6I-qDDC12oEbpHvTwNSUYC4D09NjBnhiIRlp0SZ0ft/s320/neptune.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106150852139108194" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" >Although not receiving credit for the official finding of Neptune, Galileo Galilei (Galileo) created drawings show that he first observed <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> on December 28, 1612, and again on January 27, 1613. These findings come some 230 years prior to the “official” discovery!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMHIehbWupxPcrKZljJHUHOFCa8bs5lLSqtAnZv09z1-OogtygT3jTi64prc9lb6Aut8Z6nPnbD-vvRaidJhZp5xI92g15IKUwm67shuFWGLvEn_cPe8nMkvg65wqZygxQkAHUDLDsUKgG/s1600-h/galileo.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMHIehbWupxPcrKZljJHUHOFCa8bs5lLSqtAnZv09z1-OogtygT3jTi64prc9lb6Aut8Z6nPnbD-vvRaidJhZp5xI92g15IKUwm67shuFWGLvEn_cPe8nMkvg65wqZygxQkAHUDLDsUKgG/s320/galileo.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106150074750027570" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" >Sadly, on both occasions, Galileo mistook <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> for a fixed star when it appeared very close (in conjunction) to Jupiter in the night sky.<span style=""> </span>Believing it to be a fixed star, he is not credited with its discovery. Unfortunately for Galileo, at the time of his first observation in December 1612, it was stationary in the sky because it had just turned retrograde that very day; and since it was only beginning its yearly retrograde cycle, <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place>'s motion was far too slight to be detected with Galileo's small telescope and technology of his day.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In 1821, Alexis Bouvard published astronomical tables of the orbit of Uranus.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Subsequent observations revealed substantial deviations from the tables, leading Bouvard to hypothesize some perturbing body. In 1843, John Couch Adams<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHo5CRsFS-eyFdT_xBy3AcjB7zVIZzUqcIpysjuw7opm00493SnCSO3bw2s3ophHIu5eahi8Uv7WVETMOKbGFJvOjYtJD1LrBrkAvaLQor1AL-6e8r-HdqXiMz4OhJM2vQZ5bUefUSypdo/s1600-h/john+couch+adams.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHo5CRsFS-eyFdT_xBy3AcjB7zVIZzUqcIpysjuw7opm00493SnCSO3bw2s3ophHIu5eahi8Uv7WVETMOKbGFJvOjYtJD1LrBrkAvaLQor1AL-6e8r-HdqXiMz4OhJM2vQZ5bUefUSypdo/s320/john+couch+adams.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106150371102771010" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" >calculated the orbit of an eighth planet that would account for Uranus' motion. He sent his calculations to Sir George Airy, the Astronomer Royal, who asked <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place> for a clarification. <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place> reportedly began to draft a reply but never sent it.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In 1846, Urbain Le Verrier, independently of <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place>, produced his own calculations but also experienced difficulties in encouraging any enthusiasm in his compatriots. However, in the same year, John Herschel started to champion the mathematical approach and persuaded James Challis<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhROUALwP1nQKOGC29pST4HmrfN_RN5760mbm9pxpIPDwLDWMA_f8qlR-MiE1h7zpFbybUBTXx1MrNxBkhPRYgSSJHs4iYWSdFHezo-OPzYEqLuQeWvlNf78QaygvO435HMZbfltiWkjLwK/s1600-h/James+Challis.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhROUALwP1nQKOGC29pST4HmrfN_RN5760mbm9pxpIPDwLDWMA_f8qlR-MiE1h7zpFbybUBTXx1MrNxBkhPRYgSSJHs4iYWSdFHezo-OPzYEqLuQeWvlNf78QaygvO435HMZbfltiWkjLwK/s320/James+Challis.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106151629528188818" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" >to search for the planet and assit his quest for proof.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >After much procrastination, Challis began his search in July 1846. However, in the meantime, Le Verrier had convinced Johann Gottfried Galle to search for the planet also to confirm his findings.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >The most overlooked factor that led to the discovery was actually made by a student at the Berlin Observatory; Heinrich d'Arrest suggested that a recently drawn chart of the sky, in the region of Le Verrier's predicted location, could be compared with the current sky to seek the displacement characteristic of a planet, as opposed to a fixed star. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Neptune was discovered that very night, September 23, 1846, within 1° of where Le Verrier had predicted it to be, and about 10° from <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place>' prediction. Challis later realized that he had observed the planet twice in August, failing to identify it owing to his uninterested approach to the work.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >In the wake of the discovery, there was allegedly much nationalistic rivalry between the French and the British over who had priority and deserved credit for the discovery. Eventually an international consensus emerged that both Le Verrier and Adams jointly deserved credit. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >However, the issue is now being re-evaluated by historians with the rediscovery in 1998 of the so-called "Neptune papers" (historical documents from the Royal Greenwich Observatory), which had apparently been “misappropriated” by astronomer Olin Eggen for nearly three decades and were only rediscovered immediately after his death in 1998.<br /></span></p><p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style=";font-family:";" >(</span>Librarians at the RGO discovered that the Neptune papers were missing in the late 1960s, and there has been no sign of them since. One American astronomer has even alleged that the disappearance of the papers was part of a <span style="font-weight: bold;">deliberate cover-up to protect the reputation of Adams, who never published his predictions,</span> unlike Urbain Leverrier.)</span></p><p style="font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:85%;">HINT: For those of us tasked to (or feel compelled to) forecast our predictions--Get them down on paper or online for posterity asap!<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >After reviewing the documents, some historians now suggest that <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place> does not deserve equal credit with Le Verrier. This strikes me as odd since <st1:place st="on">Adams</st1:place> predicted the discovery some three years before Le Verrier, however his calculations were about 9° apart from the actual location…<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Shortly after its discovery, <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> was referred to simply as "the planet exterior to Uranus" or as "Le Verrier's planet". The first suggestion for a name came from <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Galle</st1:place></st1:city>. He proposed the name Janus. In <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">England</st1:place></st1:country-region>, Challis put forth the name Oceanus. In <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">France</st1:place></st1:country-region>, François Jean Dominique Arago suggested that the new planet be called Leverrier, a suggestion which was met with stiff resistance (expectedly) outside French borders. Interestingly, French almanacs promptly and prematurely reintroduced the name Herschel for Uranus and Leverrier for the new planet.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Meanwhile, on separate dates, Adams suggested altering the name Georgian to Uranus,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioJaEtbrYbxwyCW7bkIF3MwdupepfHuDXniDBPX8btwWmdidL9kw2iQSgROKLg6oc_vbdhaHOJl3OQ-9hTUNvjMMA3g-4rMt9dxweO4f5glxFUfa0YYl2ZREuh2t9FeDc4MOhvwKXc-u3w/s1600-h/uranus.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioJaEtbrYbxwyCW7bkIF3MwdupepfHuDXniDBPX8btwWmdidL9kw2iQSgROKLg6oc_vbdhaHOJl3OQ-9hTUNvjMMA3g-4rMt9dxweO4f5glxFUfa0YYl2ZREuh2t9FeDc4MOhvwKXc-u3w/s320/uranus.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106151041117669234" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" > while Leverrier (through the Board of Longitude) suggested <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> for the new planet. Struve came out in favor of that name on December 29, 1846, to the Saint Petersburg Academy of Sciences. Soon <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> became the internationally accepted nomenclature. In Roman mythology, <st1:place st="on">Neptune</st1:place> was the god of the sea,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAfIr0Kd1jR5gjZoZz0OpCm2Nwwt9Nu2IkODm9CcN6Wm3oGKKFe85wdM1NrCCjRwjRbCO2PwenlLmH0DmdecxUInY3EunqVaUaVJVXYhEvif5zfb2YYeTaXZXg42otMo0PvaQjROeSksoN/s1600-h/neptune-man.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAfIr0Kd1jR5gjZoZz0OpCm2Nwwt9Nu2IkODm9CcN6Wm3oGKKFe85wdM1NrCCjRwjRbCO2PwenlLmH0DmdecxUInY3EunqVaUaVJVXYhEvif5zfb2YYeTaXZXg42otMo0PvaQjROeSksoN/s320/neptune-man.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106151350355314562" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:";" > identified with the Greek Poseidon. The demand for a mythological name seemed to be in keeping with the nomenclature of the other planets, all of which, except for Uranus, were named in antiquity.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >Congratulations to Msrs. LeVerrier, Adams, and more prominently Galileo(in my opinion)!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" >But I’m still not a math fanatic although I do know for certain that mathematics are the key to most technology—Kids take note! Take more math classes!!<o:p></o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-25452957111394841762007-09-03T17:36:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:49.262-08:00Successful Predictions win prizes?Week 5 & 6 combined—successful predictions and my forecast of predictions.<br />Successful Predictions win prizes?<br /><br />Actually yes, in some cases the successful predictionist will win the Nobel prize for a correct prediction in economics or science…<br /><br />Such as Robert Engle and Clive Granger ‘s 2003 Nobel prize in economics based upon their path-breaking discovery of a method for analyzing unpredictable movements in financial market prices and interest rates. Accurate characterization and prediction of these volatile movements are essential for quantifying and effectively managing risk. For example, risk measurement plays a key role in pricing options and financial derivatives. Previous researchers had either assumed constant volatility or had used simple devices to approximate it. They developed new statistical models of volatility that captured the tendency of stock prices and other financial variables to move between high volatility and low volatility periods (“Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: ARCH”). These statistical models have become essential tools of modern asset pricing theory and practice.<br /><br />Successful Predictions Part 1: Overview<br /><br />There have been numerous, various famous and infamous predictions made throughout history, including those by scientists, sociologists, technologists, futurologists, economists, philosophers, prophets, and even the fictional predictions of science fiction.<br /><br />Predictions can be further categorized as good or bad, successful or failed.<br />For some, the jury is still out, such as those of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe">Malthusian</a> camp…<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><blockquote>I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.<br /><br />Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.<br />– Malthus 1798</blockquote><br /></div><br />Malthus’s prophets of doom regarding sustainability and overpopulation and the Cornucopian and Utopian futures of abundance and perfection are the two major views on such “powers”.<br /><br />Conversely, a cornucopian is someone who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by advances in technology. Fundamentally there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide plenty for the estimated peak population of about 9 billion in 2050.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbZYvds-GR05d-pt9-KkW2l61ZApA6-hAqUfJJSfwpjF7NNqIsAQ6MlmwBhwP2K3FSYVQTU2BmNQ8d8R2p7zdqK2cma-nZwkuelezW1tkQDQ7jrphyL_zaZzcNjD_YqFzxsMYbRs_5-l3S/s1600-h/SG2.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 160px; height: 116px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbZYvds-GR05d-pt9-KkW2l61ZApA6-hAqUfJJSfwpjF7NNqIsAQ6MlmwBhwP2K3FSYVQTU2BmNQ8d8R2p7zdqK2cma-nZwkuelezW1tkQDQ7jrphyL_zaZzcNjD_YqFzxsMYbRs_5-l3S/s320/SG2.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106144822005024530" border="0" /></a><br />However, this must also mean that there is enough for the current world population but starvation and fuel poverty have not been eradicated, suggesting that the problem is not a lack of resources but the distribution of said resources by the current economic and political system. Looking further into the future the abundance of matter, energy and lebensraum in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth.<br />The term comes from the cornucopia, the mythical "horn of plenty" of the Greek mythology which supplied its owners with endless food and drink magically. The cornucopians are sometimes known as "Boomsters", and their philosophic opponents --- Malthus and his school --- are called "Doomsters."<br /><br />I don’t know about you, but every time I hear the predictions that seem to come every few years regarding the sustainability of human life, overpopulation, and our non-renewable resources and how we’re headed for catastrophe, my mind immediately conjures up one of my favorite movies growing up -- “<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070723/">Soylent Green</a>”.<br /> <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz3tdLgFWmDU6b5KzHnruQ6-7T1KiiT40RCcd7MTESPWRThqXxfcHcBsSORHz47o6TU6u7jV6S3gSK6dbu3hFYOvKJZlE6q5807V7iDHsTXjPwn0EIA5udmQhCgLYEsJoV2nw_eNxKtTwF/s1600-h/SG3.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz3tdLgFWmDU6b5KzHnruQ6-7T1KiiT40RCcd7MTESPWRThqXxfcHcBsSORHz47o6TU6u7jV6S3gSK6dbu3hFYOvKJZlE6q5807V7iDHsTXjPwn0EIA5udmQhCgLYEsJoV2nw_eNxKtTwF/s320/SG3.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106145101177898786" border="0" /></a>It’s not really that I’m morbid or anything, but the things I liked about that movie were that<br /><ul><li>– Charlton Hesston was such a ‘<a href="http://datacore.sciflicks.com/soylent_green/sounds/soylent_green_punk.wav">cool</a>’ cop character (<a href="http://datacore.sciflicks.com/soylent_green/sounds/soylent_green_furniture.wav">Detective Robert Thorn</a>) in that flick. <span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">(The character is eerily similar to his character two years previous in “<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067525/">The Omega Man</a>”. But he always was a tough guy with lots of class…)</span></span></li><li>– It was Edward G. Robinson’s last movie—he died 9 days after filming. <span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">(I tried to find a sound clip of his character “Sol the Book” talking about how they used to eat real food [back in the day] after Thorn brought home strawberries and beef from the crime scene, but I could only find clips of Hesston)</span></span></li></ul><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPBXrYV4I4Xs_lQXwsMRjq3Qv0LOAkj9Vbi6w-QvAlnajUJMYw8aj0ahKrJDTWWJKftJua9jSZsKnM-ClUaa2-ZkSgOi1zA_GEZf0Uyeu1dyP73_tuwMY9pvWZFU_HbjhnTVsI6VfYf1i3/s1600-h/SG1.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 190px; height: 141px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPBXrYV4I4Xs_lQXwsMRjq3Qv0LOAkj9Vbi6w-QvAlnajUJMYw8aj0ahKrJDTWWJKftJua9jSZsKnM-ClUaa2-ZkSgOi1zA_GEZf0Uyeu1dyP73_tuwMY9pvWZFU_HbjhnTVsI6VfYf1i3/s320/SG1.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106144504177444610" border="0" /></a><ul><li>– And the idea of the “<a href="http://datacore.sciflicks.com/soylent_green/sounds/soylent_green_from_people.wav">renewable</a>” food supply did seem kind of ingeniously logical in a strange way… (but in my defense, I was only a teenager then too!)</li></ul><br />Often, the difference between pessimistic and optimistic prediction depends on attitudes such as technophilia, technophobia, and political / social bias. Some of these attributes plague technology still today and the result of this bias determines in many cases success or failure of new products and services—the key (as they say in comedy) is timing. If the public believes the “magic” (see my post of <a href="http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html">fodder for the foolish</a> <span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 0);">for the magic test)</span> of new technology it is embraced and adopted, when the magic is not believable for whatever reason or attitude, the idea is shunned and failure is declared.<br /><br />Science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke is famous for his three laws of prediction (Profiles of the Future, 1961 ). British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously argued that to understand the future it was necessary to understand the past. Patrick Henry once said, "I have but one lamp to guide my life. I only know the future from the past."<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoq0YQwPgWxQ5Jy0IVWgpy5YGrWzrmRp_sAtjSjj8cNK_JI72pdmK26oMqxU4zMk3RDtUg9ZUODZfnZO1VlsWsBurIkmX0TDy8Rj86wL_W5jKnvIshkSu4QVIvDe9l8HydfdETVgWABK0R/s1600-h/Nostradamus.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoq0YQwPgWxQ5Jy0IVWgpy5YGrWzrmRp_sAtjSjj8cNK_JI72pdmK26oMqxU4zMk3RDtUg9ZUODZfnZO1VlsWsBurIkmX0TDy8Rj86wL_W5jKnvIshkSu4QVIvDe9l8HydfdETVgWABK0R/s320/Nostradamus.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106144220709603058" border="0" /></a>Nostradamus is perhaps the world's most famous author of prophecies (predictions).<br />A range of quite different views regarding Nostradamus are expressed in printed literature and on the Internet. At one end of the spectrum, there are extreme academic views such as those of Jacques Halbronn, suggesting at great length and with great complexity that Nostradamus' Prophecies are antedated forgeries written by later hands with a political axe to grind. Although Halbronn possibly knows more about the texts and associated archives than almost anybody else alive (he helped dig out and research many of them), most other specialists in the field reject this view.<br /><br />At the other end of the spectrum, there are numerous fairly recent popular books, and thousands of private websites, suggesting not only that the Prophecies are genuine but that Nostradamus was a true prophet. Thanks to the vagaries of interpretation, no two of them agree on exactly what he predicted, whether for our past or for our future.<br /><br />There is somewhat of a consensus among these works, however, that he predicted the French Revolution, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler, both world wars, and the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There is also a consensus that he predicted whatever major event had just happened at the time of each book's publication, from the Apollo moon landings, through the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997, and the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in 1986, to the events of 9/11: this 'movable feast' aspect appears to be characteristic of the genre.<br /><br />Possibly the first of these books to become truly popular in English was Henry C Roberts' The Complete Prophecies of Nostradamus of 1947, reprinted at least seven times during the next 40 years, which contained both transcriptions and translations, with brief commentaries. This was followed in 1961 by Edgar Leoni's unusually dispassionate Nostradamus and His Prophecies, which is universally regarded as by far the best and most comprehensive treatment and analysis of Nostradamus in English prior to 1990. After that came Erika Cheetham's well-known The Prophecies of Nostradamus, incorporating a reprint of the posthumous 1568 edition, which was reprinted, revised and republished several times from 1973 onwards, latterly as The Final Prophecies of Nostradamus. This went on to serve as the basis for Orson Welles' celebrated film/video The Man Who Saw Tomorrow. Apart from a two-part translation of Jean-Charles de Fontbrune's Nostradamus: historien et prophète of 1980, the series could be said to have culminated in John Hogue's well-known books on the seer from about 1994 onwards, including Nostradamus: The Complete Prophecies (1999) and, most recently, Nostradamus: A Life and Myth (2003).<br /><br />With the exception of Roberts, these books and their many popular imitators were almost unanimous not merely about Nostradamus' powers of prophecy, but also about various aspects of his biography. He had been a descendant of the Israelite tribe of Issachar; he had been educated by his grandfathers, who had both been physicians to the court of Good King René of Provence; he had attended Montpellier University in 1525 to gain his first degree: after returning there in 1529 he had successfully taken his medical doctorate; he had gone on to lecture in the Medical Faculty there until his views became too unpopular; he had supported the heliocentric view of the universe; he had travelled to the north-east of France, where he had composed prophecies at the abbey of Orval; in the course of his travels he had performed a variety of prodigies, including identifying a future Pope; he had successfully cured the Plague at Aix-en-Provence and elsewhere; he had engaged in 'scrying' using either a magic mirror or a bowl of water; he had been joined by his secretary Chavigny at Easter 1554; having published the first installment of his Propheties, he had been summoned by Queen Catherine de' Medici to Paris in 1556 to discuss with her his prophecy at quatrain I.35 that her husband King Henri II would be killed in a duel; he had examined the royal children at Blois; he had been buried standing up; and he had been found, when dug up at the French Revolution, to be wearing a medallion bearing the exact date of his disinterment.<br /><br />From the 1980s onwards, however, an academic reaction set in, especially in France. The publication in 1983 of Nostradamus' private correspondence and, during succeeding years, of the original editions of 1555 and 1557 discovered by Chomarat and Benazra, together with the unearthing of much original archival material revealed that much that was claimed about Nostradamus simply didn't fit the documented facts. The academics pointed out that not one of the claims just listed was backed up by any known contemporary documentary evidence. Most of them had evidently been based on unsourced rumours retailed as 'fact' by much later commentators such as Jaubert (1656), Guynaud (1693) and Bareste (1840), on modern misunderstandings of the 16th-century French texts, or on pure invention. Even the often-advanced suggestion that quatrain I.35 had successfully prophesied King Henri II's death did not actually appear in print for the first time until 1614, 55 years after the event.<br /><br />On top of that, the academics, who themselves tend to eschew any attempt at 'interpretation', complained that the English translations were usually of poor quality, seemed to display little or no knowledge of 16th-century French, were tendentious and, at worst, were sometimes twisted to fit the events to which they were supposed to refer (or vice versa). None of them, certainly, were based on the original editions: Roberts had based himself on that of 1672, Cheetham and Hogue on the posthumous edition of 1568. Even the relatively respectable Leoni accepted on his page 115 that he had never seen an original edition, and on earlier pages indicated that much of his biographical material was unsourced.<br /><br />However, none of this research and criticism was originally known to most of the English-language commentators, by function of the dates when they were writing and, to some extent, of the language it was written in. Hogue, admittedly, was in a position to take advantage of it, but it was only in 2003 that he accepted that some of his earlier biographical material had in fact been 'apocryphal'. Meanwhile the scholars were particularly scathing about later attempts by some lesser-known authors (Hewitt, 1994; Ovason, 1997; Ramotti, 1998) to extract 'hidden' meanings from the texts with the aid of anagrams, numerical codes, graphs and other devices.<br /><br />The bottom line is this: although Nostradamus’s “prophecies” seem to predict either correctly or incorrectly the future, they are generally too vague and ambiguous to be factual with regard to specific events. Seemingly, only those who want to believe they were true predictions have attempted to “prove” them to be successful.<br /><br />My predictions however are more specific and are located here for posterity:<br />http://profhinkle.blogspot.com/2007/09/my-latest-predictions-fodder-for.html<br /><br />1. I feel that Computational grids (including CPU Scavenging grids) which focuses primarily on computationally-intensive operations, or Data grids -- the controlled sharing and management of large amounts of distributed data will come into personal computing usage in the mainstream (not just reserved for large companies anymore).<br />2. Computers will not replace humans with complex problem-solving skills since humans use logic mixed with illogic (mainly due to their human perspective and experiences) to create success. Note: this one is contrary to the 205 BT technology timeline that predicts “Expert systems surpass average human learning and logic abilities – 2011-2015”<br />3. Computers will control basic functions such as self-monitoring of simple systems (communication, comfort, entertainment, facilities) and some self-maintenance in homes widespread globally in civilized countries by 2025.<br />4. People will have more personal computers (in their homes, cars, and clothing) than televisions by 2020. Remember the movie “Back to the Future” when the 50’s family flatly stated that “nobody has two TVs”?<br />5. A “new” major computer programming language (or perhaps a NanoLanguage) will emerge prior to 2030 that will replace many of the older languages. I expect Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Alex Probst, or Michelle Hammonds to be involved in this project somehow…<br />6. New ways will be invented to harness the power of the human brain using some type of technology or devices (e.g. nanotechnology). In the 2005 BT technology timeline, they refer to this as “Brain add-on’s” and I agree with them, although I believe we will see them prior to (at least one decade sooner than) the forecasted 2030’s date.<br />Check back often to see what others are saying about these!Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-14560164823282983222007-09-03T13:24:00.001-07:002007-09-03T13:25:53.367-07:00Most logical Mr. Spock!<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Week 5 Gabcast Presentation<br /><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b style="">Gabcast presentation by the not-so-gabby Mr. <s><span style="color: red;">Spock</span></s> Hinkle, or “don’t beam me up Scotty”…<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">While researching Web2.0 tools, I stumbled upon (But not by using <a href="http://www.stumbleupon.com/">stumbleupon</a>, another tagging tool similar to del.icio.us) this interesting new tool called “Spock”. <a href="http://www.spock.com/">Spock</a> appears to have combined powerful search engine capabilities coupled with the ability to search other Web2.0 tools such as MySpace, Flickr, Del.icio.us, Technocrati, Gabcast and many others in the “community” or “social” networking websites plus news sites. Similar to a specialized search engine would be if there is such a thing…</p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">You can search for people by name or search term – which they call <a href="http://www.spock.com/do/pages/help#tags">tags</a> on Spock. </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">For example, if you are looking for information on a particular person, you can type in their name. You can also search by e-mail address. Alternatively, you can also type in the search term, such as "democrat", "republican", or "drunk driver,” which will then give you the top results on Spock for those terms.</p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Apparently the results are ordered by number of votes, source of search results, completeness of search results and many other secret factors.</p> <p>The developers say that Spock has developed a special algorithm that combines information found on the web with community generated input.</p> <p>Thus Spock pushes up term-based search results based not only on news articles, but also on the number of votes that the community has generated. Spock allows the community to have a say in, for example, whether the search term “drunk driver” is more relevant to <a href="http://www.spock.com/Britney-Spears">Britney</a>, <a href="http://www.spock.com/Ted-Kennedy">Ted Kenedy</a>, or <a href="http://www.spock.com/Lindsay-Lohan">Lindsay Lohan</a> at any given point in time.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">One very fascinating aspect of the Spock project is their contest for the best and the brightest developers to help them make a better product. It is an interesting and innovative way to foster community and collaboration and to get their product enhanced at the same time!</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Hear my gabcast here now!</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""> </span>Gabcast! <a href="http://www.gabcast.com/index.php?a=episodes&b=play&id=12706&cast=39437" target="_BLANK">Prof_Hinkle's prodigious apercu on the air #1 - The Spock Challenge for Web2.0</a><br /><br />The Spock $50k Challenge for developers<br /><br /><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="150" height="76" codebase="http://fpdownload.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=8,0,0,0"><param name="movie" value="http://www.gabcast.com/mp3play/mp3player.swf?file=http://www.gabcast.com/casts/12706/episodes/1188850682.mp3&config=http://www.gabcast.com/mp3play/config.php?ini=mini.0.l"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.gabcast.com/mp3play/mp3player.swf?file=http://www.gabcast.com/casts/12706/episodes/1188850682.mp3&config=http://www.gabcast.com/mp3play/config.php?ini=mini.0.l" allowscriptaccess="always" wmode="transparent" width="150" height="76" name="mp3player" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></embed></object></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""> </span></p> <h1><span style="font-size: 16pt;">THE SPOCK CHALLENGE <o:p></o:p></span></h1> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://challenge.spock.com/">http://challenge.spock.com/</a></p> <h2 style="text-align: center;" align="center"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">One Challenging Problem. One Compelling Prize ($50,000).<o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p>The Challenge<br />To improve our technology and to create a better user experience, we decided to share the fun! We have selected one of our most interesting problems, namely Entity Resolution, to share with the community, allowing other leading computer scientists and engineers to compete in an open contest. The winners of this global competition will reap a handsome reward, and perhaps even employment at Spock.</p> <p>You can work individually and in teams. The competition will last 4 months and the winning team will win a Grand Prize of $50,000! Most importantly you’ll be working on a very important and widely applicable problem. We will also be issuing prizes for 2nd and 3rd place.</p> <p><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Visit Gabcast Yourself!</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.gabcast.com"><img src="http://www.gabcast.com/images/gabcast_120x240_a.jpg" /></a>'</p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-82247838504577647852007-09-03T12:10:00.000-07:002008-12-08T14:38:49.997-08:00Google Docs--Web2.0 test drive.<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:100%;"><b style="">My first experienc</b><b style="">e with using GoogleDocs—a Web</b></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><b style="">2.0 tool test</b><b style="">.</b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.google.com/google-d-s/tour1.html">http://www.google.com/google-d-s/tour1.html</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"> </v:formulas> <v:path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"> <o:lock ext="edit" aspectratio="t"> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_s1026" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.png" title="googledocs"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><br /><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">After navigating to the Google docs start page, I clicked on the “Try it out” link it began the process of assisting me to create a document.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlmvYaqLOCeukGBUqi8B9Df_hvcBmcZEGfEUlHyZntpoTrYGtmax4B0s2RLGJHYhXvkL90LCm-45PDpZt1L0SlK-zyNKheGnkNwbBWYxVacoGz6pAmrPvP2fBktuzfBzxQ5NlUWt7VB7Gd/s1600-h/googledocs.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlmvYaqLOCeukGBUqi8B9Df_hvcBmcZEGfEUlHyZntpoTrYGtmax4B0s2RLGJHYhXvkL90LCm-45PDpZt1L0SlK-zyNKheGnkNwbBWYxVacoGz6pAmrPvP2fBktuzfBzxQ5NlUWt7VB7Gd/s320/googledocs.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106057685708523154" border="0" /></a>The first step was to create my user account information for the Google docs tools.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1027" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:36pt;margin-top:7.8pt;width:264pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image003.png" title="googledocs2"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwfMhvGIp3NCyIA6udH_xXUlfVycp7qhYjtckrOBFDaeeAretd4sAklEuv5Dm3lU6YDClwzUZGZj6iL0yu9ALnKaaoxIFi7OJ4jK6JqIdVrmN0aQopsWW78Erxz1WVARriIVb_ZV-ZrJzd/s1600-h/googledocs2.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwfMhvGIp3NCyIA6udH_xXUlfVycp7qhYjtckrOBFDaeeAretd4sAklEuv5Dm3lU6YDClwzUZGZj6iL0yu9ALnKaaoxIFi7OJ4jK6JqIdVrmN0aQopsWW78Erxz1WVARriIVb_ZV-ZrJzd/s320/googledocs2.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106058218284467874" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">After clicking on the continue button, the Google system recognized my user account information automatically and logged me into the Google docs main area.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1028" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:36pt;margin-top:5.55pt;width:333pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image005.png" title="googledocs3"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUBMMliPKelU_EwtRFBFc8e4i0WqzxUlGCIH4x5n7USviHkaZuPrYBPjVXt7RHIiFooWY-Ay_qEj96DydHbc9JkqvmJdxov860RXLkdOtfp2nwqi8OJUmGicQZP4BPt8WZFWZi2JbgOVsa/s1600-h/googledocs3.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUBMMliPKelU_EwtRFBFc8e4i0WqzxUlGCIH4x5n7USviHkaZuPrYBPjVXt7RHIiFooWY-Ay_qEj96DydHbc9JkqvmJdxov860RXLkdOtfp2nwqi8OJUmGicQZP4BPt8WZFWZi2JbgOVsa/s320/googledocs3.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106058622011393714" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Apparently, when I logged into the Google docs tools the first time, I experimented with a document which is showing up in the main folder areas (I don’t recall when it was that I first got into the Google docs to create this one, so I am going to examine it and probably delete it).</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now, I will begin the new document; it will be a simple spreadsheet using Dr. C’s grading rubrics that she has already shared with us.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">One nice, user-friendly feature that I notice immediately is how you can expand the folders to view or search for documents by type (document like MS Word, or spreadsheet like MS Excel). This feature allows users to quickly find or work with existing documents of any type.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjjt-UzyswSqqmsfRuXBd0kn_AnFylPiO_MZ0o6CUSz8Swpf_bgPZ0qBBiIirEaOCVlitwWydBmnt-P_gD_aqYzgFuSPVW7xX1by8fncGUJR8GUZRtmhRAYjs5XPa01FjwKVoP4JmGBSXa/s1600-h/googledocs4.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjjt-UzyswSqqmsfRuXBd0kn_AnFylPiO_MZ0o6CUSz8Swpf_bgPZ0qBBiIirEaOCVlitwWydBmnt-P_gD_aqYzgFuSPVW7xX1by8fncGUJR8GUZRtmhRAYjs5XPa01FjwKVoP4JmGBSXa/s320/googledocs4.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106059450940081874" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1029" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:27pt;margin-top:.6pt;width:341.6pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image007.png" title="googledocs4"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><br /><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:oval id="_x0000_s1030" style="'position:absolute;" fillcolor="yellow"> <v:fill opacity="22938f"> </v:oval><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><span style=""> <table align="left" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td height="2" width="11"><br /></td> </tr> <tr> <td><br /></td> <td><br /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </span><!--[endif]--><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">To begin the document/spreadsheet, I simply clicked on the “New” menu and then chose Spreadsheet.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1031" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:27pt;margin-top:4.25pt;width:342pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image010.png" title="googledocs5"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDMBHf3Fv1cIj30dLxvE7vkNj2ItFAyN05tfXeuckXdhRuCk4_wEhei2AwIbwQhSWjqimUCji3Rtxo1JfpJHRXBJtyQOHJ68ItRzdNxfSDGOC9gczaYR-ghEPl0syUnTd5WabpydIzoI2o/s1600-h/googledocs5.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDMBHf3Fv1cIj30dLxvE7vkNj2ItFAyN05tfXeuckXdhRuCk4_wEhei2AwIbwQhSWjqimUCji3Rtxo1JfpJHRXBJtyQOHJ68ItRzdNxfSDGOC9gczaYR-ghEPl0syUnTd5WabpydIzoI2o/s320/googledocs5.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106058991378581186" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t66" coordsize="21600,21600" spt="66" adj="5400,5400" path="m@0,l@0@1,21600@1,21600@2@0@2@0,21600,,10800xe"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="val #0"> <v:f eqn="val #1"> <v:f eqn="sum 21600 0 #1"> <v:f eqn="prod #0 #1 10800"> <v:f eqn="sum #0 0 @3"> </v:formulas> <v:path connecttype="custom" connectlocs="@0,0;0,10800;@0,21600;21600,10800" connectangles="270,180,90,0" textboxrect="@4,@1,21600,@2"> <v:handles> <v:h position="#0,#1" xrange="0,21600" yrange="0,10800"> </v:handles> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_s1032" type="#_x0000_t66" style="'position:absolute;color:#f9c;" fill><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><span style=""> <table align="left" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td><br /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </span><!--[endif]--><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The Google docs tool begins a spreadsheet that looks and feels very similar to MS Excel which is actually a good thing since most of us are probably already familiar with the Microsoft tools. The interface seems to be at least as intuitive as Excel with typical formatting features such as Bold, Italic, Underline, font selections and font size choices plus font color and text wrapping, alignment, and the common cut, copy, and paste functions as well.<span style=""> </span>The Menus are slightly different offering choices for File, Edit, Sort, Formulas, and Revisions that control the same functionality as the Excel menus with fewer selections which may make them easier to find, or perhaps may actually mean that there is less functionality in the Google docs tool—we’ll find out!</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_s1033" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'position:absolute;margin-left:42.75pt;margin-top:6pt;width:346.5pt;"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\MATTHE~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image013.png" title="googledocs6"> <w:wrap type="square"> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaJ7PI5u1GlVVuve2359ygMrKRj0dzrszo2xOZBdj_RPJT9o134ALQWtfcQOM6DETFUCQ0CI9UoCVA4FClLT8rVF6tNFFadUDS_i6OMgahM5cqDDm0hyphenhyphen-tAv90YqZZLj3dqKyi4JM3_skl/s1600-h/googledocs6.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaJ7PI5u1GlVVuve2359ygMrKRj0dzrszo2xOZBdj_RPJT9o134ALQWtfcQOM6DETFUCQ0CI9UoCVA4FClLT8rVF6tNFFadUDS_i6OMgahM5cqDDm0hyphenhyphen-tAv90YqZZLj3dqKyi4JM3_skl/s320/googledocs6.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5106059906206615266" border="0" /></a><!--[endif]--></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">One nice feature that I notice right off in the file menu is the opportunity to select preferences that control the location of the user and their time zones for revision control.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now I am actively creating the spreadsheet and after I have input the column and row headings that I want to use, I have input the student names as I thought of them, so I need to sort them alphabetically.<span style=""> </span><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The sorting function does not work exactly as Excel, and is a bit cumbersome in comparison; instead of allowing me to sort the selected cells, it will only sort the entire sheet which really messed up my layout! So the “Undo” button is my best friend in document creation as I have learned in the past (Good thing that’s an available tool here!). Anyway, now I have undone and discovered that you can freeze some of the rows to not be included in the sorting, so I have frozen the top 4 rows for my headings and re-sorted the rest to get my student name list in order.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">One additional note about sorting—if you freeze some rows, then you cannot format the entire row by clicking on the row marker as you can in Excel, however you can still format the individual cells. While I’m on that topic, one tool that I find EXTREMELY useful that is <b style=""><i style=""><span style="color:red;">absent</span></i></b> in Google docs is the “format painter”—in MS Excel, the format painter allows you to select a format of a previously formatted cell and apply it to another cell without remembering what the formats were or trying to figure out what you did to make it look that way…</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">While I am entering the additional headings for the assignments possible and grading points/gold available, I am finding one HUGE annoyance that I can’t figure out how to fix—Many times, I need to go back into an already created cell of information and adjust some of the text; in Excel, you can simply click on the cell and use the arrow keys to navigate to the insertion or deletion point to continue—in Google docs spreadsheet, you cannot! You must re-type everything in the cell!! AAAAGGGGHHHH, I hate re-typing info, don’t you??</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p style="color: rgb(102, 51, 255); font-style: italic;" class="MsoNormal">OK, right after I typed this, I noticed that my previous attempts to double-click were evidently just too feeble—I have tried it again and AM able to re-enter the cell to edit—HOORAY!!</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The only other complaint I can come up with, is that the spreadsheet only began with columns A—S so I had to manually add a few columns; not a really big deal, but I would rather have them available so that I didn’t have to take extra steps to get them.<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">In the same vein however, I must point out that the insert columns and rows in Google docs are more functional because they allow you to insert rows above or below and columns to the left or right—In Excel, you can only insert rows above and columns to the left, so this is a bit more friendly because you don’t have to remember the rules of where the tool wants to put them and then deal with it.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now, I am going to share the document with Dr. C using the Google docs share tool.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">It asked for her email address and allowed me to invite her to be a collaborator or simply a viewer—I chose collaborator and sent it off to share.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">All in all, I feel that the Google docs spreadsheet is very functional and very intuitive and is an excellent tool to use anytime you are online although I plan to keep my MS tools as a backup or for when I don’t have internet access or for working offline.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-56893096299039924872007-09-02T19:07:00.001-07:002007-09-02T19:07:45.894-07:00My latest predictions--fodder for the foolish?<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Predictions about Predictions</span></i></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">People are always asking consultants to make predictions.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Should we be wise and silent, or attempt to accommodate them?<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">People especially crave predictions about their financial and emotional futures. Which stocks will grow? Will I be happy? Which companies will fold? What jobs will be best? Will I find love? What should they study to prepare for their future jobs? What products will sell?<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Predictions are difficult.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">…Well, no, predictions are actually easy—many people are ready to throw in “their two cents” -- unless you want some semblance of accuracy.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">As Gerald M. Weinberg (consultant and author on consulting) has put it: “Since I'd feel responsible if I hurt somebody with a poor prediction, I seldom accept their invitation to predict.”<span style=""> </span>I must agree with him and decline to predict as a general principle.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">In <a href="http://secretsofconsulting.blogspot.com/2006/06/predictions-about-predictions.html">Mr. Weinberg’s blog</a>, he recounts how book publishers <i style=""><u>predicted his book’s failures</u></i> if they would but choose to print it on several occasions. In one instance the publisher took pains to expound on why they were predicting failure “…I first sent it to the company that had published all my previous books without hesitation. Here's what they said: "It just is not worthwhile pushing this project any further. It may be that the concept is good ... but the style and breadth of presentation is just not suitable. It could be that a major overhaul and rewrite will result in a marketable project. On the other hand, it may be wiser to forget the book concept entirely...”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">He continues “…The book was not overhauled, nor rewritten, but it was turned down by another publisher before it finally found a home. It's now been in print for more than 30 years, and has sold over 100,000 copies in English, and many more in other languages. For the company that eventually published it, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Computer-Programming-Silver-Anniversary/dp/0932633420/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-3677220-0547630?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188222373&sr=8-1">The Psychology of Computer Programming<span style="font-style: normal;"> </span></a></i>sold more copies and made more money than the next five books (published) in their line…”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Weinberg adds, “…in retrospect, the two publishers who declined the project proved not to have much </span><i style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: maroon;" lang="EN">(successful)</span></i><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"> predictive power.” We couldn’t agree more!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Patrick Henry once said, "I have but one lamp to guide my life. I only know the future from the past."<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">So, if the past can be used to make predictions, what predictions can we make using past predictions as a guide?<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">Publishers will be wrong?<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">The world is flat?<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."<br /></span></b><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943</span></cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."<br /> <cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Popular Mechanics, 1949</span></cite> <o:p></o:p></span></li></ul> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing’s is a fad that won't last out the year."<br /><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957</span></cite> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"But what...is it good for?"<br /><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip</span></cite> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."<br /></span></b><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of DEC</span></cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";"> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><cite><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-style: normal;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></cite><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary; we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'"<br /><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Steve Jobs, cofounder of Apple Computer</span></cite><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></cite></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">"Indeed, it would not be an exaggeration to describe the history of the computer industry for the past decade as a massive effort to keep up with Apple."<br /><cite><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";">- Byte, December 1994</span></cite> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: blue;">…You’re welcome, Ted Vera—from Matt.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">One further thing to remember about forecasting and predictions as<a href="http://home.gwu.edu/%7Ehalal/"> Dr. William E. Halal </a>reminded us “Many of the items (predictions on future technology) may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist Arthur C. Clarke said: </span><b style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: maroon;" lang="EN">‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’</span></b><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"> (<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Profiles-Future-Arthur-C-Clarke/dp/0575402776/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-3677220-0547630?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1188233796&sr=8-1">Profiles of the Future, 1961</a> – Clarke’s third law).” Some test huh?<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">I’m not going “out there” as Dr. Halal and the 2005 BT Technology timeline did <a href="http://www.techcast.org/forecastTable.aspx">(see similar predictions here)</a>, however here are some that I’m willing to make (some even have dates to qualify my success/failure):<o:p></o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="1" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">I feel that Computational grids (including CPU Scavenging grids) which focuses primarily on computationally-intensive operations, or </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_grid" title="Data grid">Data grids</a></span></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN"> -- the controlled sharing and management of large amounts of distributed data will come into personal computing usage in the mainstream (not just reserved for large companies anymore).<o:p></o:p></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="2" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: maroon;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Computers will not replace humans with complex problem-solving skills since humans use logic mixed with illogic (mainly due to their human perspective and experiences) to create success. </span><i style=""><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">Note: this one is contrary to the 205 BT technology timeline that predicts “Expert systems surpass average human learning and logic abilities – 2011-2015”<o:p></o:p></span></i></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="3" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">Computers will control basic functions such as self-monitoring of simple systems (communication, comfort, entertainment, facilities) and some self-maintenance in homes widespread globally in civilized countries by 2025.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="4" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">People will have more personal computers (in their homes, cars, and clothing) than televisions by 2020. <i style="">Remember the movie “Back to the Future” when the 50’s family flatly stated that “nobody has two TVs”?<o:p></o:p></i></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="5" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">A “new” major computer programming language (or perhaps a NanoLanguage) will emerge prior to 2030 that will replace many of the older languages. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">I expect Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Alex Probst, or Michelle Hammonds to be involved in this project somehow…<o:p></o:p></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <ol style="margin-top: 0in;" start="6" type="1"><li class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS";" lang="EN">New ways will be invented to harness the power of the human brain using some type of technology or devices (e.g. nanotechnology). <i style="">In the 2005 BT technology timeline, they refer to this as “Brain add-on’s” and I agree with them</i>, although I believe we will see them prior to (at least one decade sooner than) the forecasted 2030’s date.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ol> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; color: black;" lang="EN">Check back often to see what others are saying about these!<o:p></o:p></span></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-29401622687417165532007-09-02T18:47:00.000-07:002007-09-02T19:05:23.024-07:00Service Oriented Architecture in the “real” service world.<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">We’re not talking computing here…or are we??<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">But the concept of service oriented still fits the web 2.0 mold in that we are going to use technology to drive these new trends to consumers.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/27/news/companies/restaurant_trends/</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Dining trends: Self-service=quick service</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Innovations to watch: Self-service kiosks.</p> <p><b style=""><i style="">Fast food becomes faster—your lunch at your speed!<o:p></o:p></i></b></p> <p>New technology innovations could soon force the restaurant industry to re-examine and change an often-used industry acronym --<i> QSR</i>, or quick-service restaurant (fast food restaurant to the general public) -- to<i> SSR</i>, or self-service restaurant, instead.</p> <p>Self-service kiosks and computerized table-top ordering screens are just two of the many trends that were on display at the National Restaurant Association's (NRA) industry show in May 2006.<span style=""> </span>The NRA hosts this annual event that showcases the latest offerings in technology, menu items, uniform fashions and restaurant designs.</p> <p>"The restaurant industry is the most labor-intensive industry in the country," said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of research with NRA, adding that it currently employs about 12.5 million workers in over 925,000 restaurants and is projected to grow by 2 million workers over the next 10 years.</p> <p>"When you introduce technology into restaurant operations, whether these are fast-food operators or family dining chains, you are able to get above-normal productivity increases," he said.</p> <p>For example, industry insiders said franchisees of fast-food leader <a href="../jones.m4v">McDonald's</a> (see video) , sandwich chain Subway and restaurant operator Arby's have tested self-service kiosks.</p> <p>Juan Perez, president of Adusa Inc., said his company, in partnership with IBM, has developed kiosks that allow consumers to self-order in grocery stores (Kroger is Adusa's biggest customer) and restaurants.</p> <p>Move over food-sample marketing ladies; Said Perez "Our kiosks are already in pilot tests in grocery stores. <span style=""> </span>A customer walks up to the kiosk and places an order to the deli or the bakery. They can pick up the order after they're done with the rest of their shopping." Moreover, customers can also use the kiosk to get information on wines or look up recipes, he said.</p> <p>I can already envision the kiosks placed near the front doors of the stores and the service areas in another part of the store so that the customer’s order will be ready by the time they can walk to the counter.</p> <p>Customers in quick-service restaurants will use the kiosks to order food and pay with a credit or debit card, Perez said, avoiding both mis-orders and long lines at the counter.</p> <p>"It lets consumers feel more in control because they're getting exactly what they ordered. Businesses can deploy the staff elsewhere and refocus on speeding up order delivery," said the NRA's Riehle.</p> <p><b style=""><i style=""><span style="color: teal;">I don’t know about you, but I saw this very thing in the “cafeteria/mess hall” on the starship <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Enterprise</st1:place></st1:City> on StarTrek back in the 1970’s!<span style=""> </span>Their food was offered and supplied by the touch-screen and delivered instantaneously!!<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p><o:p> </o:p></p> <p>Likewise, casual dining order systems are undergoing an evolution of their own. Chosen Media will debut a table-top touchscreen order system at the show.</p> <p><b style=""><i style=""><span style="color: teal;">Didn’t restaurants like A&W and small diners have a form of this at some point 30 years ago, similar to the table-top jukebox selection modules?<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p> <p>"Customers can place their menu order through the system, they can ask for refills, call the waiter to their table and pay for their meal using a credit or debit card," said company manager Calvin Watkins. The system also acts as a personal jukebox.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">I rather like the idea of the personal multimedia presentation on my table-top to allow me to pick-and-choose instead of hearing the waiter’s (usually) lame claim as to which is his/her “favorite” dish on the menu – I have two daughters and one son-in-law that are or have been servers in restaurants and I know they are given instructions to push certain items that the stores are trying to raise sales on or perhaps are overstocked on, so its usually not really their “favorite” at all…</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">In any case, I was just wondering what anyone else thinks about these upcoming trends in restaurant dining will do for us or perhaps how this will change the dining experience at all—any feedback?</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='280' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dxLkh56mL8MCS8UDaqgLphBsLabgATKAXBzxfH6j79RnoNxFvNGyL4dgePugVG9qdWQJqWrnnNWIz6ATE_meg' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-33516157257923944522007-09-02T16:47:00.000-07:002007-09-02T16:48:59.807-07:00Future of personal flight or flight of fancy??<p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Future of personal flight or flight of fancy??<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ramblings about failed predictions (<span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">or were they?</span>)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Dr. Mark Gerschefske (ok, soon-to-be Dr. G.) had a very interesting post on his blog regarding “failed predictions” with a well written article on flying cars. See <a href="http://markctu.blogspot.com/2007/08/failed-prediction-flying-car.html">http://markctu.blogspot.com/2007/08/failed-prediction-flying-car.html</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, I pointed out in comments to his blog that I believe the prediction of the flying car is merely delayed, albeit SIGNIFICANTLY if you consider that the inventor/futurist Waldo Waterman had produced a prototype flying car in 1937, so we’re only talking about 70 years delayed! Ok, ok, that is significantly late—I get it, but I absolutely believe this will be in the mainstream public by 2020.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Another interesting and telltale fact about how people embrace technology and innovation was the fact that there really was a viable flying car named the “Watermans’ Aerobile” which was powered by a Studebaker engine that could fly at a speed of 112 MPH and on the ground at 56 MHP. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The really interesting part is that the technology existed, but the government wasn’t ready for every home to have a plane in their garage. (Shades of big brother?)</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In their defense, I must point out that the FAA was in its infancy at that point in history:</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><i style="">The FAA May 20, 1926: President Calvin Coolidge signed the Air Commerce Act of 1926 into law. The act instructed the Secretary of Commerce to foster air commerce; designate and establish airways; establish, operate, and maintain aids to air navigation (but not airports); arrange for research and development to improve such aids; license pilots; issue airworthiness certificates for aircraft and major aircraft components; and investigate accidents.<o:p></o:p></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">And REGULAR Air passenger service began that same year (three days later [May 23] to be exact!).</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The FAA has just recently (2006) begun to certify smaller and smaller classes of mini and micro jets which will ultimately pave the way for flying cars—they already have software infrastructure to handle small regional and personal airports for these smaller classes of aircraft.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">To make the point that the flying car is not a failed prediction, only delayed, it appears that there are many flying cars ready to make the retail market within the next 10 years or less. The most promising is Woody Norris’s Air Scooter who has a working prototype that he claims will sell cheaply - $50k and more importantly you will not need a pilot’s license if you fly under 400 feet in non-restricted airspace. Of course, I’m not very certain if that will get you from point A to point B of your intended destinations in very many circumstances, but it does look promising!</p> <p class="MsoNormal">See his link here:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/15/60minutes/main688454.shtml">http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/15/60minutes/main688454.shtml</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p>All of this babble is simply to lead us to this point in my blog—I found the most amazing quote from Woody Norris while digging into Mark’s topic.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">This quote really sums up the feeling and mood of the true futurist and innovator in all areas, technologies, and all walks of life:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p><br />"…This stuff that we're surrounded by, that we think is so cool is <b style=""><i style=""><u>caveman</u></i></b>," says Norris. <b style=""><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><span style=""> </span><i style=""><span style="color: blue;">"The good stuff is coming. </span><span style="color: red;">The really good stuff is coming…"</span></i></span></b><i style=""><span style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-55353022501197916842007-08-26T18:38:00.000-07:002007-08-26T18:39:08.101-07:00Web 2.0 Browsing with friends (and friends’ friends) or, as the Beatles put it—“I get by with a little help from my friends…”With the advent of web 2.0 tools for social bookmarking or sharing such as del.icio.us, furl, LQ, Digg, Blinklist, Chipmark, Connectedy, Connotea, Diigo, Lookmarks, Ma.gnolia, Netvouz, Simpy, Spurl, Unalog and many others, there is now a convienent way to share what we like and dislike without referring to reading lines of text-based material posted on facebook, myspace, or the like. These tools for sharing bookmarks and favorites are typically simple to use and using them create a “people powered” search engine for finding the most popular links.<br /><br />There have been hundreds of “clones” and “better mousetraps” created and used.<br /><br />For an excellent up-to-date listing of the myriad of so-called social bookmarking (tagging) tools available see:<br /><a href="http://3spots.blogspot.com/2006/01/all-social-that-can-bookmark.html">http://3spots.blogspot.com/2006/01/all-social-that-can-bookmark.html</a><br /><br />On the downside, I am not entirely certain that I want to trust others who may or may not have the same taste in humor or likes/dislikes as I do. I haven’t done much research on this aspect yet, perhaps there are ways to filter the “popularity” factor…<br /><br />*Cheers & Waves*<br />Have fun!Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-17790161686937165392007-08-03T17:58:00.000-07:002007-08-03T17:59:39.314-07:00Week 4- Failed Project AnalysisWeek 4- Failed Project Analysis<br />Post #6<br /><br />Failed Prediction: Project Xanadu<br /><br />The Analysis<br /><br />Why did Xanadu fail?<br /><br />In a nutshell, I believe Xanadu failed to emerge as a successful prediction (and ends up in the failed category) because Mr. Nelson wanted a “perfect” system or world, and would not release control of the software or system until it met his predetermined internal definition of success—his system was never “good enough” in his eyes.<br /><br />Too much to ask for?<br /><br />Xanadu was meant to be a universal library, a worldwide hypertext publishing tool, a system to resolve copyright disputes, and a meritocratic forum for discussion and debate. By putting all information within reach of all people, Xanadu was meant to eliminate scientific ignorance and cure political misunderstandings.<br />And, on the very hackerish assumption that global catastrophes are caused by ignorance, stupidity, and communication failures, Xanadu was supposed to “save the world” ostensibly from itself…<br /><br />With the explosion of scientific discovery in computing that occurred in the early 1980s, the most successful projects seemed to be the ones first-to-market in many cases.<br />The early 1980s also saw a number of experimental hypertext and hypermedia programs, many of whose features and terminology were later integrated into the Web (see history above for more on this).<br /><br />Perhaps, the Xanadu story would be one of success if only Nelson had pushed to market with what he had and who knows; maybe we would be cursing him instead of Bill Gates!??<br /><br />Perhaps the Xanadu project had too many <a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=4562124728873399765#The_17_original_rules_of_Xanadu">“rules”</a> or requirements?<br /><br />In all likelihood, the open source projects of today may have the right idea in this area—put your code “out there” and let others help you test/break it to get it built quicker and more reliably…<br /><br />Please provide your thoughts and insights on why you think Xanadu failed!??Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-80636326772911710622007-08-03T17:57:00.000-07:002007-08-03T17:58:54.999-07:00Week 4- Failed Project Reality<div align="center">Week 4- Failed Project Reality<br />Post #5<br /><br />Failed Prediction: Project Xanadu<br /><br />The Reality<br /><br />The invention of hypertext<br /><br />Ted Nelson is generally thought to have “coined” the words "hypertext" and "hypermedia" in 1965 and worked with Andries van Dam to develop the Hypertext Editing System in 1968 at Brown University.<br /><br />Douglas Engelbart had begun working on his NLS system in 1962 at Stanford Research Institute, although delays in obtaining funding, personnel, and equipment meant that its key features were not completed until 1968. That year, Engelbart demonstrated a hypertext interface to the public for the first time, in what has come to be known as "The Mother of All Demos".<br /><br />Funding for NLS slowed after 1974. Major work in the following decade included NoteCards at Xerox PARC and ZOG at Carnegie Mellon. ZOG started as an artificial intelligence research project under the supervision of Allen Newell. Only much later would its participants realize that their system was a hypertext system. ZOG was deployed in 1980 on the U.S.S. Carl Vinson and later commercialized as Knowledge Management System. In the early 1980s, two other significant projects were Ben Shneiderman's TIES (1983) and Intermedia at Brown University (1984).<br /><a name="Applications"></a><br />Applications<br /><br />The first hypermedia application was the Aspen Movie Map in 1977. In 1980, Tim Berners-Lee created ENQUIRE, an early hypertext database system somewhat like a wiki. The early 1980s also saw a number of experimental hypertext and hypermedia programs, many of whose features and terminology were later integrated into the Web. Guide was the first hypertext system for personal computers.<br />In August 1987, Apple Computer revealed its HyperCard application for the Macintosh line of computers at the MacWorld convention in Boston, Massachusetts. HyperCard was an immediate hit and helped to popularize the concept of hypertext with the general public.<br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">(Ed Note:) Ted Vera is beaming with pride at this moment!</span></strong><br /><br />Meanwhile Nelson, who had been working on and advocating his Xanadu system for over two decades, along with the commercial success of HyperCard, stirred Autodesk to invest in Nelson's revolutionary ideas. The project continued at Autodesk for four years, but no product was released.<br />The group continued their work, almost to the point of bankruptcy. In 1993, however, Nelson met John Walker, founder of Autodesk, at a conference for the people mentioned in Steven Levy's Hackers, and the group started working on Xanadu with Autodesk's financial backing.<br />While at Autodesk, the group, lead by Gregory, completed a version of the software, written in the C programming language, though the software didn't work as well as they wanted. However, this version of Xanadu was successfully demonstrated at the Hackers Conference and generated considerable interest. Then a newer group of programmers, hired from Xerox PARC, used the problems with this software as justification to rewrite the software in Smalltalk. This effectively split the group into two factions, and the decision to rewrite put a deadline imposed by Autodesk out of the team's reach. In August 1992, Autodesk divested the Xanadu group, which became the Xanadu Operating Company, which struggled due to internal conflicts and lack of investment.<br /><br />Charles S. Smith, the founder of a company called Memex (the name of the hypertext system designed by Vannevar Bush), hired many of the Xanadu programmers and licensed the Xanadu technology, though Memex soon faced financial difficulties, and the then-unpaid programmers left, taking the computers with them. (The programmers were eventually paid.) At around this time, Tim Berners-Lee was developing the World Wide Web.<br /><a name="Hypertext_and_the_World_Wide_Web"></a><br />Hypertext and the World Wide Web<br /><br />In the late 1980s, Berners-Lee, then a scientist at CERN, invented the World Wide Web to meet the demand for automatic information-sharing between scientists working in different universities and institutes all over the world.<br />Then in early in 1993, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois released the first version of their Mosaic web browser to supplement the two existing web browsers: one that ran only on NeXTSTEP and one that was only minimally user-friendly. Mosaic ran in the X Window System environment, which was then popular in the research community, and offered usable window-based interaction. It allowed images as well as text to anchor hypertext links. It also incorporated other Internet protocols, including the Gopher protocol.<br /><br />After the release of web browsers for both the PC and Macintosh environments, traffic on the World Wide Web quickly exploded from only 500 known web servers in 1993 to over 10,000 in 1994. Thus, all earlier hypertext systems were overshadowed by the success of the web, even though it lacked many features of those earlier systems, such as typed links, transclusion, and source tracking.<br /><a name="Implementations"></a><br />Implementations<br /><br />Besides the already mentioned <a title="Project Xanadu" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Xanadu">Project Xanadu</a>, <a title="Hypertext Editing System" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypertext_Editing_System">Hypertext Editing System</a>, <a title="NLS" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NLS">NLS</a>, <a title="HyperCard" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperCard">HyperCard</a>, and <a title="World Wide Web" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wide_Web">World Wide Web</a>, there are other noteworthy early implementations of hypertext, with different feature sets:<br /><a title="FRESS" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FRESS">FRESS</a> — A 1970s multi-user successor to the <a title="Hypertext Editing System" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypertext_Editing_System">Hypertext Editing System</a>.<br /><a title="Information Presentation Facility" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Presentation_Facility">Information Presentation Facility</a> — Used to display online help in <a title="IBM" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM">IBM</a> operating systems.<br /><a title="Intermedia (hypertext)" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermedia_%28hypertext%29">Intermedia</a> — A mid-1980s program for group web-authoring and information sharing.<br />Storyspace -- a mid-1980's program for hypertext narrative<br /><a title="Texinfo" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texinfo">Texinfo</a> — The <a title="GNU" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNU">GNU</a> help system.<br /><a title="XML" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XML">XML</a> with the <a title="XLink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XLink">XLink</a> extension — A recent innovation in web-language related to <a title="HTML" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTML">HTML</a>.<br /><a title="MediaWiki" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWiki">MediaWiki</a>, the system that powers <a title="Wikipedia" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia">Wikipedia</a>, and other <a title="Wiki" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki">wiki</a> implementations — Relatively recent programs aiming to compensate for the lack of integrated editors in most Web browsers.<br /><a title="Microsoft Office Word" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Office_Word">Microsoft Word</a> — This common program has evolved from paper-only to in-computer documents using hyperlinks.<br />Adobe's <a title="Portable Document Format" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portable_Document_Format">Portable Document Format</a> — Another common program supporting links.<br /><a title="Windows Help" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Help">Windows Help</a><br /><br /><br /> </div>Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-12824919385251150672007-08-03T17:55:00.000-07:002007-08-03T17:57:26.705-07:00Week 4- Failed Project Alternate?Week 4- Failed Project Alternate<br />Post #4<br /><br />Failed Prediction: Project Xanadu<br /><br />The Alternate? Reality<br /><br />Another view<br />(from the Xanadu Australia official website: http://xanadu.com.au/ )<br />Ted Nelson thought up the whole thing in 1960, and has been speaking and publishing about the idea since 1965. In that year he also coined the terms "hypertext" and "hypermedia" for non-sequential writings and branching presentations of all types. (The term "interactive multimedia" seems to have become popular recently.)<br />Since that time there have been a long series of changing designs embodying these ideas:<br />1960:<br />Nelson's designs showed two screen windows connected by visible lines, pointing from parts of an object in one window to corresponding parts of an object in another window. No existing windowing software provides this facility even today.<br />1965:<br />Nelson's design concentrated on the single-user system and was based on "zipper lists", sequential lists of elements which could be linked sideways to other zipper lists for large non-sequential text structures.<br />1970:<br />Nelson invented certain data structures and algorithms called the "enfilade" which became the basis for much later work (proprietary to Xanadu Operating Company, Inc. until 24 August 1999)<br />1972:<br />Implementations ran in both Algol and Fortran.<br />1974:<br />William Barus extended the enfilade concept to handle interconnection.<br />1979:<br />Nelson assembled a new team (Roger Gregory, Mark Miller, Stuart Greene, Roland King and Eric Hill) to redesign the system.<br />1981:<br />K. Eric Drexler created a new data structure and algorithms for complex versioning and connection management.<br />The Project Xanadu team completed the design of a universal networking server for Xanadu, described in various editions of Ted Nelson's book "Literary Machines".<br />1983:<br />Xanadu Operating Company, Inc. (XOC, Inc.) was formed to complete development of the 1981 design.<br />1988:<br />XOC, Inc. was acquired by Autodesk, Inc. and amply funded, with offices in Palo Alto and later Mountainview California. Work continued with Mark Miller as chief designer.<br />The 1981 design (now called Xanadu 88.1) was topped off but Miller began a redesign. Xanadu 88.1 was not subjected to quality control or released as a product.<br />Dean Tribble and Ravi Pandya became co-designers and work on the redesign continued.<br />1989:<br />The World Wide Web, Hyper-G and Microcosm projects are initiated, all inspired or influenced by the Xanadu ideas.<br /><br /><span style="color:#000099;"><strong>1991:<br /></strong>The World Wide Web enters the mainstream public.<br />On August 6, 1991, Tim Berners-Lee posted a short summary of the World Wide Web project on the alt.hypertext newsgroup. This date also marked the debut of the Web as a publicly available service on the Internet.<br /></span><br />1992:<br />Autodesk entered into the throes of an organizational shakeup and dropped the project, after expenditures on the order of five million US dollars. Rights to continued development of the XOC server were licensed to Memex, Inc. of Palo Alto, California and the trademark "Xanadu" was re-assigned to Nelson.<br />1993:<br />Nelson re-thought the whole thing and re-specified Xanadu publishing as a system of business arrangements. Minimal specifications for a publishing system were created under the name "Xanadu Light", and Andrew Pam of Serious Cybernetics in Melbourne, Australia was licensed to continue development as Xanadu Australia.<br />1994:<br />Nelson was invited to Japan and founded the Sapporo HyperLab. Memex changed their name to Filoli. SenseMedia became the second Xanadu licensee under the name of "Xanadu America".<br />1996:<br />Nelson became a Professor of Environmental Information at the Shonan Fujisawa Campus of Keio University. Initial draft of text transclusion proposal released.<br />1997:<br />Initial draft of OSMIC specifications released. Internet-Draft on Fine-grained Transclusion in HTML released. Transpublishing and transcopyright start to be used on the Web.<br />1998:<br />Nelson received his first award for his work on Xanadu and hypermedia, the 1998 Yuri Rubinsky Insight Foundation lifetime achievement award.<br />1999:<br />Open Source release of Xanadu 88.1 and 92.1 code under the names Udanax Green and Udanax Gold respectively.<br />2001:<br />Nelson awarded the medal and title of "Officier des Arts et Lettres" by the French Minister of Culture for his work on Xanadu and hypermedia.Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-31831581818711166202007-08-03T17:52:00.000-07:002007-08-03T17:55:34.820-07:00Week 4- Failed Project History ContinuedWeek 4- Failed Project History Continued<br />Post #3<br /><br />Failed Prediction: Project Xanadu<br /><br />The History<br /><br />History Continued<br /><br /><HR><br /><center><br />PROJECT XANADU MISSION STATEMENT<br /><Font size = "-1">(from the Xanadu official website: http://xanadu.com/ )</Font size><br />DEEP INTERCONNECTION, INTERCOMPARISON AND RE-USE<br />Since 1960, we have fought for a world of deep electronic documents-- with side-by-side intercomparison and frictionless re-use of copyrighted material.<br />We have an exact and simple structure. The Xanadu model handles automatic version management and rights management through deep connection.<br />Today's popular software simulates paper. The World Wide Web (another imitation of paper) trivializes our original hypertext model with one-way ever-breaking links and no management of version or contents.<br />WE FIGHT ON.<br /></center><br /><HR><br /><br />Xanadu, a global hypertext publishing system, is the longest-running vaporware story in the history of the computer industry. It has been in development for more than 30 years. <br /><br />This long gestation period may not put it into the same category as the Great Wall of China, which was under construction for most of the 16th century and still failed to foil invaders, but, given the relative youth of commercial computing, Xanadu has set a record of futility that will be difficult for other modern contemporaries to surpass. <br /><br />The fact that Nelson has had only since about 1960 to build his reputation as the king of unsuccessful software development makes Xanadu interesting for another reason: the project's failure (or, viewed more optimistically, its long-delayed success—In 1998, Nelson released the source code to Xanadu as Project Udanax, in the hope that the techniques and algorithms used could help to overturn some software patents. And in 2007, Project Xanadu released XanaduSpace 1.0.) coincides almost exactly with the birth of the so-called “hacker” culture. <br /><br />Xanadu's manic and highly publicized swerves from triumph to bankruptcy show a side of hackerdom that is as important, perhaps, as tales of billion-dollar companies born in garages.<br /><br />Regardless of what you think of Ted Nelson, Nelson's writing and presentations inspired some of the most visionary computer programmers, managers, and executives - including Autodesk Inc. founder John Walker - to pour millions of dollars and years of effort into the project. Needless to say, Nelson is charismatic in a strange sort of way.<br /><br />Xanadu was meant to be a universal library, a worldwide hypertext publishing tool, a system to resolve copyright disputes, and a meritocratic forum for discussion and debate. By putting all information within reach of all people, Xanadu was meant to eliminate scientific ignorance and cure political misunderstandings. <br />And, on the very hackerish assumption that global catastrophes are caused by ignorance, stupidity, and communication failures, Xanadu was supposed to “save the world” ostensibly from itself…Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4562124728873399765.post-85929033518394219042007-08-03T17:51:00.000-07:002007-08-03T17:52:04.847-07:00Week 4- Failed Project HistoryWeek 4- Failed Project History<br />Post #2<br /><br />Failed Prediction: Project Xanadu<br />The History<br /><br />History<br /><br />During his first year as a graduate student at Harvard, Nelson began implementing the system which contained the basic outline of what would become Project Xanadu: a word processor capable of storing multiple versions, and displaying the differences between these versions. Though he did not complete this implementation, a mockup of the system proved sufficient to inspire interest in others.<br /><br />Nelson wanted to facilitate nonsequential writing, in which the reader could choose his or her own path through an electronic document. He built upon this idea in a paper to the ACM in 1965, calling the new idea “zippered lists”. These zippered lists would allow compound documents to be formed from pieces of other documents, a concept he named “transclusion”.<br /><br />Ted Nelson published his ideas in his 1974 book “Computer Lib/Dream Machines” and the 1981 book, “Literary Machines”.<br />Computer Lib/Dream Machines is written in a non-sequential fashion: it is a compilation of Nelson's thoughts about computing, among other topics, in no particular order. It contains two books, printed back to back, to be flipped between. Computer Lib contains Nelson's thoughts on topics which angered him; Dream Machines discusses his hopes for the potential of computers to assist the arts.<br /><br />In 1972, Cal Daniels completed the first demonstration version of the Xanadu software on a computer Nelson had rented for the purpose, though Nelson soon ran out of money. In 1974, with the advent of computer networking, Nelson refined his thoughts about Xanadu into a centralized source of information, calling it a "docuverse".<br />(Shades of the World Wide Web!)<br /><br />In the summer of 1979, Nelson led the latest group of his followers, Roger Gregory, Mark Miller and Stuart Greene, to Swarthmore College. In a house rented by Gregory, they hashed out their ideas for Xanadu; but at the end of the summer, the group went their separate ways. Miller and Gregory created an addressing system based on transfinite numbers which they called tumblers, which allowed any part of a file to be referenced.<br /><br />The 17 original rules of Xanadu:<br />1. Every Xanadu server is uniquely and securely identified. <br />2. Every Xanadu server can be operated independently or in a network. <br />3. Every user is uniquely and securely identified. <br />4. Every user can search, retrieve, create and store documents. <br />5. Every document can consist of any number of parts each of which may be of any data type. <br />6. Every document can contain links of any type including virtual copies ("transclusions") to any other document in the system accessible to its owner. <br />7. Links are visible and can be followed from all endpoints. <br />8. Permission to link to a document is explicitly granted by the act of publication. <br />9. Every document can contain a royalty mechanism at any desired degree of granularity to ensure payment on any portion accessed, including virtual copies ("transclusions") of all or part of the document. <br />10. Every document is uniquely and securely identified. <br />11. Every document can have secure access controls. <br />12. Every document can be rapidly searched, stored and retrieved without user knowledge of where it is physically stored. <br />13. Every document is automatically moved to physical storage appropriate to its frequency of access from any given location. <br />14. Every document is automatically stored redundantly to maintain availability even in case of a disaster. <br />15. Every Xanadu service provider can charge their users at any rate they choose for the storage, retrieval and publishing of documents. <br />16. Every transaction is secure and auditable only by the parties to that transaction. <br />17. The Xanadu client-server communication protocol is an openly published standard. Third-party software development and integration is encouraged.Prof_Hinklehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00273190529507575767noreply@blogger.com0