My latest predictions--fodder for the foolish?

Predictions about Predictions

People are always asking consultants to make predictions.

Should we be wise and silent, or attempt to accommodate them?

People especially crave predictions about their financial and emotional futures. Which stocks will grow? Will I be happy? Which companies will fold? What jobs will be best? Will I find love? What should they study to prepare for their future jobs? What products will sell?

Predictions are difficult.

…Well, no, predictions are actually easy—many people are ready to throw in “their two cents” -- unless you want some semblance of accuracy.

As Gerald M. Weinberg (consultant and author on consulting) has put it: “Since I'd feel responsible if I hurt somebody with a poor prediction, I seldom accept their invitation to predict.” I must agree with him and decline to predict as a general principle.

In Mr. Weinberg’s blog, he recounts how book publishers predicted his book’s failures if they would but choose to print it on several occasions. In one instance the publisher took pains to expound on why they were predicting failure “…I first sent it to the company that had published all my previous books without hesitation. Here's what they said: "It just is not worthwhile pushing this project any further. It may be that the concept is good ... but the style and breadth of presentation is just not suitable. It could be that a major overhaul and rewrite will result in a marketable project. On the other hand, it may be wiser to forget the book concept entirely...”

He continues “…The book was not overhauled, nor rewritten, but it was turned down by another publisher before it finally found a home. It's now been in print for more than 30 years, and has sold over 100,000 copies in English, and many more in other languages. For the company that eventually published it, The Psychology of Computer Programming sold more copies and made more money than the next five books (published) in their line…”

Weinberg adds, “…in retrospect, the two publishers who declined the project proved not to have much (successful) predictive power.” We couldn’t agree more!

Patrick Henry once said, "I have but one lamp to guide my life. I only know the future from the past."

So, if the past can be used to make predictions, what predictions can we make using past predictions as a guide?

• Publishers will be wrong?
• The world is flat?

· "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

• "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
  - Popular Mechanics, 1949

· "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing’s is a fad that won't last out the year."
- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice-Hall, 1957

· "But what...is it good for?"
- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip

· "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of DEC

· "So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary; we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'"
- Steve Jobs, cofounder of Apple Computer

· "Indeed, it would not be an exaggeration to describe the history of the computer industry for the past decade as a massive effort to keep up with Apple."
- Byte, December 1994

…You’re welcome, Ted Vera—from Matt.

One further thing to remember about forecasting and predictions as Dr. William E. Halal reminded us “Many of the items (predictions on future technology) may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist Arthur C. Clarke said: ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’ (Profiles of the Future, 1961 – Clarke’s third law).” Some test huh?

I’m not going “out there” as Dr. Halal and the 2005 BT Technology timeline did (see similar predictions here), however here are some that I’m willing to make (some even have dates to qualify my success/failure):

1. I feel that Computational grids (including CPU Scavenging grids) which focuses primarily on computationally-intensive operations, or Data grids -- the controlled sharing and management of large amounts of distributed data will come into personal computing usage in the mainstream (not just reserved for large companies anymore).

2. Computers will not replace humans with complex problem-solving skills since humans use logic mixed with illogic (mainly due to their human perspective and experiences) to create success. Note: this one is contrary to the 205 BT technology timeline that predicts “Expert systems surpass average human learning and logic abilities – 2011-2015”

3. Computers will control basic functions such as self-monitoring of simple systems (communication, comfort, entertainment, facilities) and some self-maintenance in homes widespread globally in civilized countries by 2025.

4. People will have more personal computers (in their homes, cars, and clothing) than televisions by 2020. Remember the movie “Back to the Future” when the 50’s family flatly stated that “nobody has two TVs”?

5. A “new” major computer programming language (or perhaps a NanoLanguage) will emerge prior to 2030 that will replace many of the older languages. I expect Ted Vera, Steve Chadwick, Alex Probst, or Michelle Hammonds to be involved in this project somehow…

6. New ways will be invented to harness the power of the human brain using some type of technology or devices (e.g. nanotechnology). In the 2005 BT technology timeline, they refer to this as “Brain add-on’s” and I agree with them, although I believe we will see them prior to (at least one decade sooner than) the forecasted 2030’s date.

Check back often to see what others are saying about these!