So, this is the week 11 activity for explaining “How I spent my summer vacation” (remember writing that paper at the start of every school year in grade school??)
This however, was a different kind of “vacation”. We embarked on a trip to alternate environments, new horizons, and fascinating discovery as we are learning to become experts in computer science (including predicting the future).
Where we started:
We began with an exceptionally renowned lecturer, Dr. William Halal in our July residency who gave us some basics about this topic of “futuring”. Dr. Halal helped us to begin to understand the forces operating within and around the technology revolution. This series of lectures covered the highlights of Dr. Halal’s think-tank “TechCast”, the folks at BT.com (Ian Nelid and Ian Pearson), the Internet and world-wide-web, popular science and technology magazines, world experts, and newsletters such as the Harrow Report and Peter Cochrane who have crafted a fairly comprehensive listing of predictions in the areas of
- Artificial Intelligence and Artificial Life
- Biotechnology, Health, and Medicine
- Business and Education
- Demographics
- Energy
- Environment and Countryside
- Home and Office Infrastructure
- Life and Leisure in a Cyberspace World
- Machine Input/Output
- Materials and Electronic Devices
- Processing, Memory, and Storage
- Robotics
- Security, Military, and Law
- Shopping and Money
- Space
- Telecommunications
- Transport and Travel
- Wearable Technology
- Wild Cards
These predictions/forecasts were laid out for us and expounded upon by Dr. Halal and we had some vigorous discussion regarding many of them with the few days we had to share with Dr. Halal. The interesting thing he reminded us about forecasts (besides making certain we don’t call them predictions—he insisted we leave “predictions” to fortune tellers not professional forecasters) is that many of the forecasts may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist Arthur C. Clarke said: “…Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic…” (Clarke’s third law—Profiles of the Future by Arthur C Clarke--Original edition first published in 1962.)
Some of the other important points that were brought up from Dr. Halal’s visit lead us to think of how our children will view and interact with their world—we will likely do many of the same basic things in life, but in terms of how we do them, we may as well be on different planets due to the future of technology. One very interesting quote from Dr. Halal’s lecture material stated “The future comes to us all at 60 minutes per hour, but (forecasting the future) allows us to look a bit further up the road and see what could be happening…” (Quote from either Ian Pearson or Ian Nelid—the source was not clear)
In the book, “The Fortune Sellers”, William Sherdan states that there are basically sixteen different types of forecasts (economic, weather, stock market, population, technology, and so on) and only two could be counted on reliably (one-day ahead weather forecasts and the aging of the population) and only ONE of them has any scientific foundation—short-term weather forecasting. He states the remainder are “…typically based on conjecture, unproved theory, and the mere extrapolation of past trends…”
Dr. Halal continues these same thoughts by admonishing us
“…some contend methods like this are subjective, whereas quantitative methods are more precise. The fallacy of this argument lies in seeing that quantitative methods also involve large amounts of uncertainty because they require underlying assumptions that are often doubtful…Experts may have their own bias, naturally, but it is usually distributed normally, washing out in the aggregate results…”
To this, from Sherdan’s “The Fortune Sellers”, I.F. Clarke, a future historian of future thinking characterizes bias as follows:
“Traditional beliefs, professional attitudes, customary roles, inherited symbols, sectional and national interests—these make it extraordinarily difficult for all but the most original of minds to break away from patterns of thought and go voyaging on the unknown seas of the future. In consequence, it is a rare forecast that makes any allowance for the essential waywardness of human affairs and does not insist on a strict continuity between the self-evident present and the evidential future.”
All of this is somewhat summed up by Sherdan discussing the cost of forecast error. He stated that the approximately $200 BILLION DOLLARS that consumers and businesses spend on predictions bear significant financial risk when “they use faulty forecasts to make important decisions. As individuals, we pay a large psychological cost when doom-and-gloom (see Malthus) predictions gives us needless anxiety. Then, there is the cost of just plain being duped.” So in other words, many predictions/forecasts have failed and some have been successful, but all have significant cost. The success of our ability to forecast the future then, will be somewhat determined by what we study from the past, so we began…
Where we went:
We studied the past, present, and future of forecasting and futuring with emphasis and analysis on failed and successful predictions to determine what we can apply to our own futuring abilities.
We embarked upon learning the “future” of the Internet and World-Wide-Web by exploring the newest “bleeding-edge” tools commonly known as Web2.0. We did all of our work in Blogs and in SecondLife (If you don’t know about SecondLife, go here to read what news sources are saying and find out more)
to immerse us in the daily activity of advanced technology. We explored many types of Web2.0 tools to add skills to our personal toolkits—some were familiar and some were quite new to me, but ALL were extremely exciting!
I totally loved the idea of using blogs for this course because of the many benefits blogs offer, most notably: EASE of USE—casual communication style, feedback from many others as opposed to only your class, WIDE dissemination of subject matter/topics (its on the Internet!), Open audience, Interactive style, NO RULES, No previous knowledge required for using most blogging software.
The listing of my blogs for this course was:
CS_855 and the beginning of my Blogosphere
The meaning of life...ok, ok how about the meaning...
The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!??
Web 2.0 The Semantical Synaptic Web?
Week 4- Failed Project Introduction
Week 4- Failed Project History
Week 4- Failed Project History Continued
Week 4- Failed Project Alternate?
Week 4- Failed Project Reality
Week 4- Failed Project Analysis
Web 2.0 Browsing with friends (and friends’ friend...
Future of personal flight or flight of fancy??
Service Oriented Architecture in the “real” servic...
My latest predictions--fodder for the foolish?
Google Docs--Web2.0 test drive.
Successful Predictions win prizes?
Week 6 - SlideShare Web2.0 experiment
The Robots are Coming! The Robots are Coming!
Week 8 Web2.0 Tools--Flickr my Bicr
Technorati Signup--The Beginning
Week 10 Web2.0 -- Del.Icio.Us … But can you taste ...
The nearly last post for CS855--The BIG project......
I was amazed by some of the tools my classmates and peers found, so while I was looking for clipart pix for the above collage, I stumbled on (but not by using stumbleopon.com) this fantastic “directory” of 2.0 tools.
If there’s a listing of Web2.0 tools available, it may be here--
Here’s a site that we ALL must get familiar with: GO2WEB20.NET
Where we’re going:
Why did we do this?
The emphasis on learning new and innovative tools and skills will assist us in defining the future of technology and other areas that we may become involved in after graduation from Colorado Technical University.
Our goals were to identify and discuss the models of innovation, make informed predictions on industry trends and future directions, identify organizational structures that support or hinder future change, identify the means through which innovation is diffused and disseminated within an organization and throughout society.
Some of my favorite quotes on futuring and innovation:
“Just as energy is the basis of life itself, and ideas the source of innovation, so is innovation the vital spark of all human change, improvement and progress”
~Ted Levitt
“To stay ahead, you must have your next idea waiting in the wings.”
~Rosabeth Moss Cantor
“Keeping a little ahead of conditions is one of the secrets of business”
~Charles Schwab
“Innovation is not the product of logical thought, although the result is tied to logical structure.”
~Albert Einstein
“I believe in being an innovator.”
~Walt Disney
To close out, the Sherdan book “The Fortune Tellers” reminds us that one of the biggest challenges in assessing the validity of a prediction is to question whether our own judgment about the prediction is clouded by personal beliefs and predispositions. “Is our belief in a prediction a function of hearing what we want to hear?” For example, the chronic pessimist (ME) is much more likely to believe an economist who issues a negative forecast.
Sherdan stated that our propensity to believe in predictions consistent with our own beliefs is often exploited by charlatans using what is called the Barnum effect, named in honor of the master showman and trickster who advised other tricksters to “…have a little something in it for everyone…” This tactic is central to the art of astrology where the believability of predictions or personality analysis is enhanced by including general observation in which customers can see themselves or relate to.
The one major thing I think I learned is that paradoxically, our future lives are seemingly more influenceable than predictable. Although one can never really know how his/her life will evolve, it is surely possible to influence the evolution of one’s life to achieve certain aims and goals. If there is something to be gained by heeding the message, “Que Sera ,Sera” (What shall be, shall be), it is that we should not take ourselves so seriously in the light of the fact that our futures will be filled with uncertainty and, in large part, shaped by chance events and luck (except for us who believe that God directs our paths and leads us if we are obedient in following his word—no luck involved with God).
In spite of that, it seems that we can choose to lead lives that somehow flexibly adapt to unforeseen changes, and ambitious and motivated individuals can influence their futures by striving to make things happen. It’s all about making decisions and choices to shape your own future.
And the future, according to a famous movie line, is yet to be written…
1 comment:
I like your blog. I read it because I clicked on the link under profiles which shows people who list "The Ice People" as one of their favorite books. Can you believe there are only 5 of us. I can.
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